蔚来-SW：乐道即将上市，产品矩阵逐步完善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866.HK) [2] Core Views - NIO's Q2 performance exceeded expectations with vehicle deliveries of 57,373 units, leading to a revenue of 17.4 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 99% [1] - The company is set to launch its new brand, "Ladao," with the L60 model expected to be delivered by the end of September, enhancing its product matrix [1] - NIO aims for a long-term monthly sales target of 40,000 units and a gross margin of 25% for its NIO brand [1] - The company is expanding internationally, with significant progress in the UAE market and plans to deliver products there starting Q4 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Q2 gross margin was 9.7%, with a notable improvement in net loss rates, achieving a non-GAAP net loss of 4.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year improvement of 36% [1] - Revenue projections for Q3 are between 19.1 billion and 19.7 billion RMB, with expected deliveries of 61,000 to 63,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% to 13.7% [1] - The company has a strong cash position with 41.6 billion RMB in cash and equivalents as of H1 2024, which is expected to support profitability improvements [1] Product and Market Strategy - NIO's market share in the Chinese BEV segment above 300,000 RMB exceeds 40%, with plans to introduce the ET9 flagship sedan in Q1 2025 [1] - The Ladao brand is projected to deliver 20,000 units in 2024, with a monthly delivery target of 10,000 units by December [1] - NIO is also developing its Firefly brand, with new models expected to launch in H1 2025 [1] Cost Management and Profitability - The report indicates a reduction in R&D and SG&A expense ratios due to economies of scale, with expectations for Q4 gross margins to reach 15% [1] - The company anticipates a narrowing of losses in its other sales segment, with a target for the gross loss rate to drop to single digits by Q4 [1] Valuation and Future Projections - The target market capitalization is set at approximately 13 billion USD (101.2 billion HKD), with a target price of 49 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 6.3 USD for the US stock [1] - Sales volume projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 220,000, 340,000, and 450,000 units, with total revenues reaching 68.2 billion, 92 billion, and 115.9 billion RMB respectively [1][6]