有色金属行业周报：下游补库，稀土价格回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in rare earth prices driven by downstream inventory replenishment, with the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising to 403,200 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.78% [2][3]. - The investment strategy suggests that the manufacturing sector's inventory replenishment, combined with increased supply-side uncertainties, is likely to lead to a general upward trend in the prices of minor metals, particularly recommending rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten [2][3]. - The report notes that the short-term demand for rare earths is gradually recovering, with manufacturers maintaining prices, and anticipates explosive growth in multiple consumption scenarios such as robotics and electric vehicles in the medium to long term [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weak performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index down by 5.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.41 percentage points [10]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in minor metal prices, with tin prices experiencing a decline of 4.83% on the SHFE and 3.52% on the LME [2][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a tightening supply for antimony, with domestic antimony concentrate prices stable at 138,000 CNY/ton and antimony ingot prices at 161,000 CNY/ton [3][12]. - Tin prices are expected to trend upwards due to a combination of recovering demand and supply constraints, with a notable decrease in social inventory by 1,396 tons [3][12]. Lithium Market - Lithium prices continue to decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 5.33% to 71,000 CNY/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices down by 1.66% to 74,000 CNY/ton [2][9]. - The report highlights that current lithium prices have breached the industry's marginal cost, leading to potential production cuts as companies respond to the price decline [2][9]. Rare Earths - The report emphasizes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting, leading to a slowdown in supply growth [2][12]. - The price of neodymium oxide has increased by 7.10% to 437,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide has risen by 4.39% to 1,785,000 CNY/ton [12][13]. Electric Vehicles and Photovoltaics - The report notes that in July 2024, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales reached 984,000 and 991,000 units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 27% [17]. - The photovoltaic sector saw a strong year-on-year increase in new installations, with 21.05 GW added in July 2024, a 12.3% increase compared to the previous year [16].