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Morgan Stanley-China – Brokers 中国 – 券商 重新平衡融资功能与股东回报：影响分析-110014270
Morgan Stanley·2024-09-10 02:15

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the ratings for CITIC Securities H shares and East Money to Overweight (OW) and downgrades China International Capital Corporation H shares to Equal-weight (EW) [1][19]. Core Insights - The valuation of most major brokers has dropped to near historical lows due to increased uncertainty regarding future business and regulatory environments, alongside a rapid cooling of private equity and venture capital investments [1]. - The capital market has supported industrial financing and supply chain upgrades, but has resulted in disappointing investor returns, leading to a temporary tightening of capital markets and reduced visibility for brokerage businesses [1]. - A more diversified and inclusive IPO structure could enhance the quality of listed companies and investor returns, aiding the recovery of underwriting businesses [1]. - There are still alpha opportunities in the securities industry, particularly in companies that can benefit from the shift in capital market focus from financing to shareholder returns [1]. Summary by Company East Money (300059.SZ) - Rating upgraded to Overweight (OW) as its P/E ratio has compressed from approximately 13 times to only 3.7 times, presenting an attractive buying opportunity [1]. - The business model's replicability, cost efficiency, and potential for market share growth justify a valuation premium over traditional brokers [1]. CITIC Securities (6030.HK) - Rating upgraded to Overweight (OW) with an expected recovery in ROE leading the industry, projected to rise to 8.1% by 2025, potentially returning to double digits with improved market conditions [1]. - Anticipated dynamic P/B ratio recovery to 0.6-0.7 times, the highest among peers [1]. China International Capital Corporation (3908.HK) - Rating downgraded to Equal-weight (EW) due to various factors creating uncertainty around future ROE [1]. - The P/B ratio has fallen from approximately 0.6 times in Q4 2023 to 0.3 times, reflecting market concerns [1].