摩根士丹利 摩根士丹利发布研报称，将中国神华(47.26,-0.24,-0.51%)(01088)加入中国内地/香港焦点名单，评级 为"增持"。中国神华是中国最大的煤炭生产商，2025年煤炭产量达3.3亿吨，销售量达4.3亿吨。尽管国内煤 炭供应持续增加，该股在过去几年已因中国能源转型而获得持续重估。由于煤炭价格按年上升，神华的煤炭板 块将带来更高的利润贡献。同时，尽管股价上涨，神华目前仍有约7%的股息率，在波动市况中仍具吸引力。 中国神华(01088):将纳入中国内地/香港焦点名单,评级"增持" ...

摩根士丹利 同程旅行(00780):第四季利润胜预期,维持"增持"评级及目标价29港元 摩根士丹利发布研报称，同程旅行(19,0.25,1.33%)(00780)第四季收入较该行预期高出2%，核心OTA业务 收入同比增长17.5%，符合市场预期。毛利率达65.9%，同比提升2.4个百分点，主要来自高利润的住宿业务占 比提升。经调整净利润为7.8亿元人民币，较该行预期高6%，同比增长18%；尽管第四季度营销费用大幅增加 23%，净利率同比扩张0.5个百分点。全年派息每股0.25港元，同比增长39%。维持"增持"评级，目标价29港 元。 报告指，受惠于国内旅游需求稳健，同程指引2026年核心OTA收入增长中十位数(mid-teens)，净利率预计 扩张约0.5个百分点。针对同业正在进行的监管审查，同程认为对自身酒店佣金率的影响有限。由于潜在受影 响的酒店多为高端酒店，而同程的主要布局在中低线城市，因此对其价格竞争力的影响有限。 ...

老铺黄金(06181):上调今年收入及盈利预测13%至14%,评级"增持" 摩根士丹利发布研报称，老铺黄金(06181)今年首季表现强劲，预计上半年每股盈利有望同比倍增。该股 估值颇具吸引力，现交易于2026年预测市盈率13倍，盈利预测有上行风险。大摩维持集团目标价1,010港元， 但由于金价波动及需求不明朗，将目标市盈率由23倍下调至20倍，评级"增持"。 该行称，管理层未有就集资需求作出评论，但承认现金流紧张。该行认为，近期金价大幅回落为市场带来 需求不确定性，但同时是考验其品牌实力能否支持持续重估的良好时机。 大摩将老铺营收和净利预测分别上调13%至14%，预计2026年将分别同比增55%和66%，分别达420亿元和80 亿元人民币。在金价不确定性下，假设今年次季及末季需求增长动能放缓，认为目前预测足够保守。 摩根士丹利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price revised down from HKD 735 to HKD 650 [1] Core Insights - Tencent is increasing its investments in foundational models, new AI products, and GPUs, which may pressure profit margins in the short term but are expected to create new opportunities in the long run [1] - Revenue is projected to grow by 10.8% year-on-year by 2026, with non-IFRS operating profit expected to increase by 5% [1] - Key focus areas include the launch of Mix Yuan 3.0 in April, and the application of agent-based AI in WeChat, the desktop intelligent workspace WorkBuddy, and the WeChat office AI assistant Qclaw [1] - The report suggests that AI is likely to present new opportunities for Tencent, which maintains resilience due to strong network effects, value chain positioning, and regulatory barriers [1] - Tencent is prioritizing new AI capabilities and products to unlock incremental growth and enhance the differentiation of its core business [1] - AI investments are expected to significantly increase, with Tencent projected to invest RMB 18 billion in new AI products in 2025, and this amount is anticipated to more than double in 2026 [1] - These upfront AI investments may lead to profit margin pressure, resulting in slower profit growth compared to revenue growth in 2026 [1]

宁德时代(03750):升目标价至655港元,评级"与大市同步" 摩根士丹利发布研报称，已更新宁德时代(03750)的风险回报预测，其去年业绩表现胜该行预期7%，因此 上调了集团今年及以后的盈利预测。更重要的是，受惠于资本效率提升，公司净现金状况较预期更强劲。大摩 亦上调了集团储能电池出货量的假设，以反映在全球电力容量短缺背景下，因推理需求增长所驱动的、来自AI 数据中心的潜在机会。基于EV/EBITDA方法，叠加人民币升值，大摩将宁德时代H股目标价上调12%，从585港元 升至655港元，评级"与大市同步"。 摩根士丹利 ...

报告中称，京东物流2026年业绩强劲增长部分归因于比较基数，但认为利润率走势才是驱动公司估值的主 因。随着利润率在2026年重回扩张轨道，该行预期每股盈利增长与估值重估将带来上行空间。京东物流现价相 当于2026年预测市盈率8倍，相较于同业，在近期股价上涨后仍具折价优势。 京东物流(02618):上调评级至"增持",目标价升至16.2港元 摩根士丹利 大摩发布研报称，将京东物流(14,0.46,3.40%)(02618)评级由"与大市同步"上调至"增持"，同时将 2026-2027年每股盈利预测分别上调11%及15%，目标价由12.8港元升至16.2港元。 ...

大摩表示，纳入九仓2025财年业绩并引入2028年预测。计入以下因素后，该行将九仓2026及2027财年的基 本盈利预测各上调10%，以反映：(1)该行对零售及写字楼租金调整、出租率及利率的最新假设；(2)更新的发 展物业入账及完工时间表；及(3)改善的负债比率。基于其净现金状况以及来自租金及物流物业的稳定收入 流，大摩预测九仓2026至2028财年的每股股息将同比增长3%。 九龙仓集团(00004):升今明两日盈测各一成,维持"减持"评级 摩根士丹利 摩根士丹利发布研报称，将九龙仓集团(23.94,-0.14,-0.58%)(00004)牛市情景目标价由33港元下调至32 港元；熊市情景目标价由15港元下调至14港元。基于经更新的资产净值及净债务预测，按相同资产净值折让 60%(低于历史平均水平0.5个标准差)的总和计算估值，维持目标价于23港元不变。由于经营前景充满挑战及估 值不具吸引力(收益率1.7%)，维持"减持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on materials, industrials, and semiconductors, while adjusting the energy sector from underweight to equal-weight [3][41]. Core Insights - The Chinese market has underperformed compared to broader emerging markets, with the MSCI China Index down 1.2% year-to-date, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen by 15% [1][9]. - The underperformance of the Chinese market is attributed to unprecedented storage cycles and index composition rules that limit the weight of better-performing sectors [1][2]. - The report suggests a preference for A-shares over Hong Kong/offshore markets due to factors such as reduced selling pressure from state-owned entities and lower sensitivity to global geopolitical uncertainties [3][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index's gains are primarily driven by three stocks: Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC, which have contributed to a 6.5 percentage point upward revision in earnings forecasts [1][10]. - Excluding these three companies, the rest of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has shown negligible earnings forecast adjustments [10][12]. Sector Analysis - The report highlights that sectors such as materials, energy, and industrials have outperformed, while the internet sector has been a significant drag due to competitive pressures and the "ByteDance effect" [16][20]. - If index composition restrictions were lifted, the combined weight of materials, energy, information technology, and capital goods in the MSCI China Index could increase by 18 percentage points, while the e-commerce sector's weight could decrease by 10 percentage points [2][24]. Stock Selection - The report emphasizes a stock-picking approach rather than relying on index allocations, focusing on sectors less affected by disruptive AI impacts [40][41]. - Specific stocks such as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and Zhaoyi Innovation have been added to the focus list, while others have been removed [43][46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Jiangxi Copper (00358) with a target price of HKD 75 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a 70% to 80% chance of Jiangxi Copper's stock price increasing over the next 60 days [1] - The tight sulfur market is expected to be further pressured by potential shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, where approximately half of the maritime sulfur is transported [1] - The oil shortage leading to refinery production cuts in other regions poses additional risks, while the fertilizer industry will compete for limited sulfur supplies [1] - Jiangxi Copper is expected to benefit from the sulfur shortage due to its copper smelting process, which primarily produces sulfuric acid as a byproduct [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Kingsoft Biotech (01548) despite a downward revision of earnings estimates [1] Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its earnings forecast for Kingsoft Biotech for the years 2026 to 2030 down by 1% to 13% following the company's profit warning [1] - The target price for Kingsoft Biotech has been reduced from HKD 18.3 to HKD 16.5 [1]