非银金融行业融资租赁产业链观察三： 航空租赁，迎来资负双击的高景气周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the aviation leasing industry [1] Core Insights - The aviation leasing industry is entering a high-growth cycle driven by stable passenger demand and an accelerated replacement of aging aircraft [7][8] - Supply chain issues continue to limit aircraft manufacturers' delivery capabilities, with shortages expected to persist until 2030 [15][18] - Rental rates for aircraft are on the rise, with significant increases noted for various aircraft models [22] - The upcoming interest rate cuts may marginally improve financing costs for leasing companies, although high costs are expected to persist in the short term due to existing debt [26][28] - The industry is experiencing consolidation, with a concentration of orders among leading companies, indicating an increase in market concentration [29] Summary by Sections 1. Asset Side: Stable Growth in Airline Demand and Supply Gap Driving Rent Increases - Passenger demand is steadily increasing, having returned to 2019 levels, with a global passenger volume growth of 8% year-on-year as of July 2024 [8][10] - Approximately 16% of active aircraft are over 20 years old and eligible for retirement, which could significantly reduce capacity in regions like North America and Europe if these aircraft are retired [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Ongoing Supply Chain Issues Leading to Limited Production Capacity - Aircraft manufacturers are facing declining delivery capabilities, with Airbus adjusting its 2024 delivery forecast from 800 to approximately 770 aircraft [15] - Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, are expected to prolong the supply shortage until at least 2030 [18] 3. Pricing: Continuous Increase in Aircraft Rental Rates - As of July 2024, rental rates for various aircraft types have increased significantly, with A320neo and 737MAX rentals rising by 15% and 18% respectively, and A330-300 rentals increasing by 50% [22][23] 4. Liability Side: Upcoming Interest Rate Cuts Expected to Improve Financing Costs Marginally - The market anticipates a reduction in interest rates by approximately 99 basis points in 2024, with further cuts expected in 2025 [26][28] - Despite potential improvements, the overall cost of debt for leasing companies is expected to remain high in 2024 due to existing liabilities [26] 5. Competitive Landscape: Frequent Restructuring Events and Increasing Industry Concentration - The aviation leasing market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding a market share of 34.7% [29][30] - Major acquisitions, such as AerCap's purchase of GECAS, have contributed to increased market concentration [29]