Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy - A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 32.77 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company, Green Bamboo Bio, has been deeply engaged in the biotechnology sector for over 20 years, focusing on the development of innovative human vaccines and therapeutic biological agents. It has successfully developed six vaccine products, with five already commercialized [1][10]. - The core product, LZ901, is a recombinant shingles vaccine that is expected to become the first of its kind approved for sale in China. The market for shingles vaccines in China is largely untapped, with a penetration rate of only 0.4% among individuals over 40, compared to over 40% in the U.S. [1][2][10]. - The company has a robust pipeline with seven products under development, including LZ901, K3 (a biosimilar to Humira), and K193 (a bispecific antibody) [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Green Bamboo Bio was established in November 2001 and has a strong foundation in vaccine research and development. The founder, Kong Jian, has over 30 years of experience in the biopharmaceutical industry [1][10]. - The company has transitioned to a public company and is exploring new opportunities for growth through financing and partnerships [10]. Shingles Vaccine (LZ901) - LZ901 is positioned to capture a significant share of the domestic shingles vaccine market, which is projected to be a multi-billion market. The vaccine has shown excellent immunogenicity and low incidence of adverse reactions in clinical trials [1][2][10]. - The Phase III clinical trial for LZ901 commenced in September 2023, with plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) to the National Medical Products Administration by January 2025 [1][2][10]. Other Products in Development - K3, a biosimilar to Humira, has completed Phase I clinical trials and is expected to enter Phase III trials in 2025. The company plans to price K3 significantly lower than existing biosimilars, enhancing its competitive edge [2][5][10]. - K193, a bispecific antibody for treating B-cell leukemia and lymphoma, is also in clinical development, with expectations to complete Phase I trials by 2025 [2][5][10]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company anticipates revenues of HKD 0.02 billion in 2024, HKD 0.02 billion in 2025, and HKD 5.87 billion in 2026, with net profits projected to turn positive in 2026 [5][6][10]. - The report utilizes a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for valuation, leading to the target price of HKD 32.77 [5][6][10]. Research and Development - The company maintains a high level of R&D expenditure, with approximately HKD 173 million in 2023, reflecting an 88.9% increase from 2022 due to the advancement of LZ901 [42][10]. - The R&D team is experienced, having previously developed several successful vaccines, and the company has established advanced technology platforms to support its product development [18][10].
绿竹生物-B：LZ901三期进行时，剑指百亿蓝海市场