商社周报：中秋国庆临近，出境游短途游景气、传统礼品市场承压

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - As the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the outbound and short-distance travel markets are expected to show signs of recovery, while the traditional gift market remains under pressure. This trend is driven by long-term changes in consumer behavior and preferences [1][3] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, highlighting the benefits from evolving consumer habits, particularly among affluent middle-class consumers seeking outbound and short-distance travel experiences. Additionally, there is a growing demand for culturally relevant products and services [1][3] - The report suggests that companies with solid business models and attractive valuations, such as leading e-commerce platforms and comprehensive trade service providers, are likely to see significant shareholder returns and growth opportunities [1][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of September 2-6, 2024, major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.61%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.68%. The retail index fell by 1.26%, while the social services index decreased by 1.01%, both performing better than the CSI 300 [4][8] - The retail index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio increased, while the social services index's PE ratio decreased. The current PE ratio for the retail index is at the 29.45% percentile over the past ten years, while the social services index is at the 0.04% percentile [10][12] Industry Dynamics - The tourism market is expected to see a small peak in travel demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival, driven by high cost-performance travel options and flexible travel arrangements. Predictions indicate a significant increase in outbound travel demand compared to the Dragon Boat Festival, with popular destinations including Japan, Thailand, and the United States [14][15] - The mooncake market is experiencing competitive pricing, with some brands entering the market at significantly lower prices. The average price for well-known brands ranges from 70 to 200 yuan, indicating a shift towards more rational pricing strategies [14][15]