NIO(09866) 东吴证券·2024-09-10 06:53Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - NIO's 2024Q2 performance exceeded expectations with revenue reaching 17.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.1% [3] - Vehicle sales revenue in Q2 was 15.68 billion yuan, up 118.2% year-on-year and 87.1% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Gross margin improved to 9.7% in Q2, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year and 4.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - Operating loss in Q2 was 5.21 billion yuan, with adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) of 4.54 billion yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to previous quarters [3] - NIO delivered 57,000 vehicles in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 143.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.9% [3] - The company expects Q3 vehicle deliveries to reach 61,000-63,000 units, potentially setting a new historical high [3] - NIO's new brand, Ledao, is expected to drive sales growth, with its first model L60 set to launch on September 19, 2024 [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 49.27 billion yuan in 2022 to 125.58 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.85% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Net loss attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from -18.24 billion yuan in 2024 to -1.99 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to improve from -8.80 yuan in 2024 to -0.96 yuan in 2026 [2] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 10.94% in 2024 to 18.00% in 2026 [8] Market Data - Closing price as of the report date was 38.55 HKD [5] - The stock's 52-week range was between 28.60 HKD and 85.25 HKD [5] - Market capitalization stood at 74.21 billion HKD [5] - Price-to-book ratio was 4.97x [5] Financial Ratios - ROIC is expected to improve from -35.53% in 2024 to -3.20% in 2026 [8] - ROE is projected to improve from -161.26% in 2024 to -23.44% in 2026 [8] - Net profit margin is forecasted to improve from -23.96% in 2024 to -1.59% in 2026 [8] - Asset-liability ratio is expected to remain high, ranging from 86.76% in 2024 to 91.76% in 2026 [8] New Brand Launch - Ledao, NIO's new brand targeting the mainstream family market, was officially launched on May 15, 2024 [4] - The first model, L60, is positioned as a mid-size SUV with key selling points including safety, space, comfort, charging system, driving experience, and intelligent driving features [4] - The L60 is expected to be a potential hit product, contributing significantly to NIO's sales growth [4]