SPM(601900) 华创证券·2024-09-10 09:12Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Strong internal growth with a defensive and offensive investment profile [1] - Operating performance meets expectations, with cost reduction and efficiency improvements driving optimism for the full year [2] - New business layout is active, with high execution and significant upward potential [2] - The company's main business remains stable, and its dividend value is attractive, with long-term growth potential from AI and education-related new businesses [2] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 24Q2 revenue: 1.937 billion CNY (YoY +3.9%), net profit attributable to shareholders: 147 million CNY (YoY +18.6%) [1] - 24H1 revenue: 4.025 billion CNY (YoY -0.8%), net profit attributable to shareholders: 299 million CNY (YoY -27.2%) [1] - Adjusted for tax effects, 24Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit increased by 23% YoY [1] Cost and Efficiency - 24Q2 gross margin: 34.4% (YoY +0.88pct), with good cost control in paper and other materials [2] - 24Q2 sales/management/R&D expense ratios: 11.3%/10.9%/0.1% (YoY -0.87/-1.37/-0.01pct) [2] Future Projections - 2024/25/26 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: 904/1,007/1,122 million CNY, with PE ratios of 12/11/10x [2] - Target price: 16.1 CNY, with a target market cap of 14.4 billion CNY [2] Business Highlights Main Business - The company benefits from population advantages in Guangdong and remains one of the few in the publishing industry with external M&A potential [2] - Main business growth is expected to outperform peers, with stable growth prospects [2] New Business - Multiple AI+education products are progressing rapidly, with further developments expected in 2024 [2] - High growth potential in education and training, with plans to expand after-school tutoring in the province [2] - New businesses such as children's programming and study tours are actively being developed, offering significant upward potential [2] Financial Forecasts Income Statement - 2024/25/26 revenue forecast: 10.961/12.106/13.212 billion CNY, with YoY growth of 17.0%/10.4%/9.1% [6] - 2024/25/26 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: 904/1,007/1,122 million CNY, with YoY growth of -29.6%/11.3%/11.5% [6] Balance Sheet - 2024/25/26 total assets forecast: 18.911/21.699/24.562 billion CNY [6] - 2024/25/26 total liabilities forecast: 9.530/11.447/13.334 billion CNY [6] Cash Flow - 2024/25/26 operating cash flow forecast: 1.707/1.811/1.800 billion CNY [6] - 2024/25/26 capital expenditure forecast: -681/-684/-688 million CNY [6] Valuation and Ratios - 2024/25/26 PE ratios: 12/11/10x [6] - 2024/25/26 PB ratios: 1.3/1.2/1.2x [6] - 2024/25/26 ROE: 10.8%/11.1%/11.5% [6] Market Performance - The company's stock price has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, with a decline of 38% [4]