Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) [1] Core Views - The company's non-GAAP performance in the first half of 2024 showed a year-on-year growth that met expectations. Despite pressure from geopolitical oil prices in Q3 2024, the report suggests that the oil transportation market remains in a super bull market phase, with a recommendation to consider reverse layout opportunities [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. However, the non-GAAP net profit increased by 8%, slightly better than the performance forecast. The average TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China for the six quarters from 2023 to 2024 was reported as 34,000/52,000/31,000/29,000/42,000/44,000 USD [6][7]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be adjusted to 5.5 billion, 7 billion, and 8 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 7.2 billion, 8.6 billion, and 9.4 billion yuan due to short-term impacts from geopolitical oil prices [6][7]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the oil transportation market is expected to see continued improvement in supply and demand over the next few years, with the market conditions likely to exceed expectations. The report emphasizes that the company's earnings are highly elastic and will benefit significantly from the favorable oil transportation market [3][6]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 50% in recent years, and it is expected that this high dividend policy will continue. The estimated dividend yield for 2024 is approximately 4% [6][7].
中远海能H2024年中报点评：扣非增长符合预期，关注逆向布局时机