中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：测算｜存量房贷利率下调的影响：负债端支撑下影响可控-20240911

Core Insights - The report estimates that the current adjustment space for existing mortgage rates is around 50 basis points, which will impact the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks by approximately -5.6 basis points, revenue by -3.1 percentage points, and pre-tax profit by -7 percentage points for 2025 [2] - Considering both the adjustment of existing mortgage rates and deposit rates, the comprehensive impact on NIM for 2025 is projected to be -4.4 basis points, with revenue affected by -2.4 percentage points and pre-tax profit by -5.4 percentage points [2] - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is expected to help alleviate the growth pressure on retail assets and the repayment burden on residents, thereby maintaining banks' NIM and optimizing asset quality in the long term [2] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Existing Mortgage Rate Adjustments - By the end of 2023, over 23 trillion yuan of existing mortgage loans had been adjusted, accounting for 60% of the total existing housing loan scale, with an average reduction of 0.73 percentage points, resulting in a weighted average interest rate of 4.27% [2] - The expected decline in existing mortgage rates by early 2025 is projected to be below 3.9%, considering the current LPR reduction of 35 basis points and the historical trend of new loan rates being lower than existing rates [2] 2. Effects of Deposit Rate Adjustments - The reduction in deposit rates has a lagging effect on supporting NIM, with costs starting to decline from Q4 2023 and a more significant drop in Q2 2024 [2] - If deposit rates are further reduced during the current mortgage rate adjustment cycle, it is estimated to support NIM by 2.86 basis points for 2024 and 1.14 basis points for 2025, with corresponding revenue and pre-tax profit impacts [2] 3. Comprehensive Analysis of Mortgage and Deposit Rate Adjustments - The simultaneous consideration of existing mortgage rate reductions and further deposit rate cuts suggests a manageable impact on NIM for 2025, with a comprehensive effect of -4.4 basis points on NIM, -2.4 percentage points on revenue, and -5.4 percentage points on pre-tax profit [2] - The report highlights that while mortgage loan issuance in 2023 is higher than in 2022, the balance has decreased due to high early repayment rates, indicating that lower existing mortgage rates could stabilize the mortgage loan scale and improve banks' retail asset quality [2]