国内观察：2024年8月进出口数据：8月外贸数据的“热”与“冷”

Group 1: Export Data - August exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, up from 7.0% in July, marking a new high for the year[11] - The trade surplus expanded to $91.02 billion, compared to the previous value of $84.65 billion[11] - Exports to the EU and Japan saw significant growth, with increases of 5.4 and 6.5 percentage points respectively[12] Group 2: Import Data - August imports amounted to $217.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, down from 7.2% in July[22] - The market had anticipated a 3.6% increase in imports, indicating a significant shortfall[22] - The decline in import growth reflects weak domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI new orders index falling to 48.9[22] Group 3: Market Outlook - Global manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[3] - The potential for a decline in export growth in Q4 is suggested by recent trends in the U.S. manufacturing PMI and employment data[25] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to be strengthened in response to current economic conditions[25] Group 4: Risks - International geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to unexpected disruptions[26] - Domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, potentially weakening market confidence and economic recovery[26]