证券Ⅱ行业海外镜鉴：低利率时代资产配置研究

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Interest rates serve as a guiding factor for asset allocation among global financial institutions, significantly impacting the allocation of major asset classes. The report focuses on the asset allocation structure changes of public asset management, insurance asset management, and investment banks in the low-interest-rate environments of the US and Japan, aiming to provide insights for domestic institutions [2][3] - Public asset management: During periods of declining interest rates, the proportion of fixed-income products increases; however, when rates drop to a certain level, the scale of fixed-income products begins to shrink. In the US, the proportion of bond-type funds in mutual funds, closed-end funds, and ETFs rises as interest rates fall. In Japan, fixed-income funds grow in both scale and proportion during the decline of interest rates, but when the 10Y government bond yield drops to around 1.3%, the scale of fixed-income products starts to decline [2][3] - Insurance asset management: The equity-debt ratio is less affected by interest rates; during low-interest periods, institutions extend duration and lower credit quality. When domestic interest rates are too low, they actively invest in overseas securities. US life insurance companies have adopted strategies to extend duration and lower credit quality to compensate for low investment yields in a low-interest environment [2][3] - Investment banks: In low-interest periods, the proportion of low-profit businesses such as margin financing and loans decreases; the proportion of investment and market-making business funding is related to the absolute level of interest rates. The profitability of margin financing and loans is highly correlated with interest rates, leading to a significant reduction in their funding proportion during low-interest periods [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. US and Japan Interest Rate Trends and Background Review - The report reviews the background and trends of interest rate changes in the US and Japan, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy on interest rates over the past 30-35 years [13][14] 2. Public Asset Management Institutions' Asset Allocation Evolution in Low-Interest Periods - The report analyzes the asset allocation evolution of public asset management institutions in the US and Japan during low-interest periods, emphasizing the relationship between interest rates and the allocation of fixed-income products [29][44] 3. Insurance Asset Management in Low-Interest Periods - The report discusses the asset allocation strategies of insurance companies in the US and Japan during low-interest periods, focusing on the stability and risk management aspects of their investment strategies [53][62] 4. Investment Banks' Asset Allocation in Low-Interest Periods - The report examines the asset allocation changes of investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the US, and Nomura in Japan during low-interest periods, highlighting the shifts in funding proportions across different business lines [67][83] 5. Comparative Analysis of Asset Allocation in Different Institutions - The report compares the asset allocation characteristics of public asset management, insurance, and investment banks in the US and Japan, summarizing the main features and reasons behind their asset allocation strategies [99][100] 6. Implications for China's Financial Institutions - The report provides insights for Chinese financial institutions on how to adapt their asset allocation strategies in the current low-interest environment, drawing lessons from the experiences of US and Japanese institutions [104][106]