2024年8月通胀数据点评：CPI同比略微反弹，PPI同比跌幅扩大

Inflation Data - In August 2024, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-on-year, up 0.1% from the previous month[3] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.4%, with a tail effect decrease of 0.3%[4] Food Price Influences - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 3.4% in August, driven by high temperatures and rainfall[5] - Specific food items included fresh vegetables up 18.1%, eggs up 2.8%, and pork up 7.3% due to reduced production capacity[5] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food items experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices[6] - Fuel prices for transportation dropped by 2.9%, and tourism-related CPI fell by 0.7% as summer travel demand decreased[6] Future Projections - The CPI growth rate is expected to decline to around 0.3% in September due to reduced travel demand and falling oil prices[7] - The anticipated decrease in food price growth is based on wholesale price indices showing weaker increases compared to early August[7] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In August, the PPI fell by 1.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.0% compared to the previous month[8] - The PPI for mining and extraction industries saw a month-on-month drop of 1.6%, reversing previous gains[8] PPI Outlook - The PPI is expected to continue its year-on-year decline in September, influenced by a tail effect decrease of 0.4%[9]