LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Guolian Securities·2024-09-11 04:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Initiation)" [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the loader market, particularly benefiting from its early advantage in electric loaders, successful overseas expansion, and the efficiency gains from mixed-ownership reform. The company's profitability is expected to continue improving [3][9]. - The engineering machinery industry is at an upward turning point, with domestic demand stabilizing and policies promoting equipment upgrades likely to drive a replacement trend [3][9]. - The trend towards electric loaders is promising due to the narrowing price gap between electric and fuel loaders, lower operational costs of electric loaders, and their compliance with high environmental standards [3][9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global and electric trends, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, founded in 1958, is the first listed engineering machinery company in China and has established itself as a leader in the loader market, with a consistent top sales position [15]. - The company has successfully expanded its international presence, with overseas revenue growing from 6 billion yuan in 2021 to 11.5 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 42% of total revenue [7][9]. 2. Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with domestic demand expected to rebound as the market stabilizes [10]. - The export of engineering machinery has increased significantly, with sales rising from approximately 270,000 units in 2020 to about 660,000 units in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 35% [10]. 3. Electric Loader Trend - The electric loader market is projected to grow, with expectations that by 2028, the global market size will reach approximately 299 billion yuan, with electric loaders accounting for about 25% of that market [10]. - The operational cost savings of electric loaders are substantial, with an estimated annual savings of about 280,000 yuan, leading to a total cost reduction of around 40% over a five-year lifecycle [10]. 4. Mixed-Ownership Reform and Globalization - The company's mixed-ownership reform, combined with stock incentives and convertible bonds, is expected to significantly enhance profitability [9][11]. - The company has maintained a globalization strategy for over 20 years, achieving over 10 billion yuan in overseas revenue in 2023, marking a new phase of growth driven by globalization and electrification [9][11]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 30.39 billion yuan, 35.11 billion yuan, and 40.52 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 10%, 16%, and 15% respectively [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.54 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 77%, 37%, and 26% respectively [11].