锑行业点评：深度分析极地黄金数据，锑价是否迎阶段性拐点？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the antimony industry, suggesting a potential phase of price stabilization due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations [1][39]. Core Insights - Antimony prices have surged significantly, with domestic antimony ingot prices nearing 160,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an annual increase of 89% [1][10]. - The supply of antimony is expected to face challenges in the near term, primarily due to reduced domestic production and logistical issues with Russian raw materials [1][39]. - The demand for antimony, particularly in flame retardants, has shown improvement, although short-term demand from the photovoltaic glass sector may be impacted by production cuts [1][29][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Antimony Price Trends - The antimony price has increased significantly, with a reported annual growth of 89%, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [1][10]. - Domestic antimony ore production has declined, while imports from Myanmar have exceeded expectations [12][14]. - The report highlights that the production from Polar Gold has increased significantly, but a decrease is anticipated in 2024 due to higher stripping ratios and reduced high-antimony ore availability [19][20]. 2. Demand Dynamics - The demand for antimony in flame retardants has improved, with production from major companies showing growth [29]. - However, the photovoltaic glass sector has experienced a production slowdown, which may temporarily dampen antimony demand [33]. - The report notes that while the overall demand for antimony remains strong, the recent production cuts in the photovoltaic glass industry could lead to a short-term decline in antimony consumption [29][33]. 3. Supply and Price Outlook - The report suggests that the supply of antimony may strengthen in the second half of the year, but the actual realization of this supply will depend on price dynamics [39]. - The anticipated release of accumulated raw material inventories from Russia is expected to suppress upward price momentum for antimony [39]. - Overall, the report concludes that the antimony market may be at a critical juncture, with insufficient upward price momentum expected for the remainder of the year [39].