出海新视角：从出口出发，构建“非美出海50”

Group 1: US Rate Cut Cycle - The current high interest rates in the US are expected to suppress refinancing demand in the real estate sector, with no significant increase in the refinancing index during the initial stages of past rate cut cycles [5] - Historical data shows that during previous US rate cut cycles, some non-US market indices have outperformed US indices, benefiting from factors such as dollar depreciation and increased market liquidity [7] - The IMF predicts that non-US regions, including Europe and Latin America, will experience higher economic growth rates than the US over the next five years, indicating expanding demand and trade opportunities [13] Group 2: Non-US Economic Expansion - Non-US economies are experiencing demand expansion and significant trade space, with European trade policies being relatively moderate as long as local employment is not severely impacted [2][17] - The economic sentiment indicator (ESI) for the Eurozone has shown a continuous recovery, with notable increases in consumer confidence in major economies like France and Spain [17] - The industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America is driving demand growth, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances trade relationships [18][27] Group 3: Non-US Export Opportunities - A focus on 14 representative export categories reveals that non-US countries account for a significant share of imports in these categories, with many showing higher export growth rates compared to the US [34] - The construction of a "Non-US Outbound 50" portfolio is proposed, targeting stocks with strong overseas revenue and growth potential in non-US markets [61][67] - Specific products such as solar batteries, ships, and engineering machinery have shown higher export prices to non-US countries compared to the US, indicating profitable opportunities [34][39][51] Group 4: Non-US Outbound 50 Portfolio - The "Non-US Outbound 50" portfolio is designed to include stocks with significant overseas revenue, aiming to capitalize on the favorable export conditions and economic growth in non-US regions [67] - The portfolio's performance metrics indicate a substantial alpha of 24.7% and a cumulative return of 14.1%, outperforming the benchmark significantly [68]