GOLDENHOME(603180) 华创证券·2024-09-11 06:54Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 24 RMB, compared to the current price of 16.02 RMB [1] Core Views - Retail business faced pressure with a 15% YoY decline in revenue, while the wholesale business grew 15.1% YoY and overseas revenue surged 33.8% YoY [1] - Gross margin declined by 1.6 percentage points to 26.7% due to a shift in revenue structure towards lower-margin products [1] - Operating cash flow was -200 million RMB in H1 2024, but improved to +230 million RMB in Q2 2024 [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 309 million RMB, 338 million RMB, and 369 million RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE ratio of 8X, 7X, and 7X [1][2] Business Performance Retail Business - Revenue declined by 15% YoY to 690 million RMB in H1 2024, with a significant drop in direct sales (-72.4% YoY) [1] - The company is actively expanding its retail network, with 1,664 kitchen cabinet stores, 1,141 wardrobe stores, and 667 wooden door stores as of Q2 2024 [1] - Home decoration business grew 45% YoY, while the "carry-in" business doubled in revenue [1] Wholesale Business - Revenue increased by 15.1% YoY to 600 million RMB in H1 2024, driven by strategic partnerships and new contracts [1] Overseas Business - Revenue surged 33.8% YoY to 170 million RMB in H1 2024, supported by expansion in North America and Australia [1] Financial Performance Profitability - Gross margin declined to 26.7% in H1 2024, down 1.6 percentage points YoY [1] - Net profit margin was 4.6% in H1 2024, down 0.5 percentage points YoY [1] Operating Efficiency - Inventory turnover days decreased by 4 days to 85 days, while accounts receivable turnover days increased by 4 days to 22 days [1] - Total asset turnover remained stable at 0.6X [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3,823 million RMB, 4,190 million RMB, and 4,510 million RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with YoY growth rates of 4.9%, 9.6%, and 7.7% [2] - EPS is forecasted to be 2.00 RMB, 2.19 RMB, and 2.39 RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 10.5% over the next three years [4]