IKD(SH:600933) Southwest Securities·2024-09-11 10:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.44 CNY over the next six months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-quality manufacturer of aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts, with significant growth potential driven by the trends of electrification and lightweighting in the automotive industry [2][3]. - The domestic market for automotive aluminum alloys is expected to reach 302 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% from 2024 to 2026 [2]. - The company is transitioning towards producing larger components for new energy vehicles (NEVs), aiming for these products to account for over 30% of sales by 2025 and 70% by 2030 [3][14]. - The company has established a global production footprint, with manufacturing bases in North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe, enhancing its local production capabilities [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Aluminum Alloy Precision Die-Casting and Accelerating Layout of New Energy Large Components - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts, primarily for automotive applications [14]. - It aims to increase the proportion of NEV components, particularly in the three electric systems and structural parts, to over 30% by 2025 and 70% by 2030 [14]. 2. Electrification and Lightweighting Trends - The average aluminum usage in Chinese vehicles is projected to grow significantly, with a target of 350 kg per vehicle by 2030 [2][43]. - The global trend towards electrification and lightweighting is expected to drive demand for aluminum die-casting parts, with the company well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [2][37]. 3. Transitioning to New Energy Large Components - The company has made substantial progress in its NEV projects, with an order backlog of approximately 268.9 billion CNY for NEV components as of September 2023 [3][16]. - The focus on larger components for NEVs is anticipated to create a second growth curve for the company [3][7]. 4. Financial Analysis - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 17.8% from 2019 to 2023, driven by an optimized customer structure and ongoing project rollouts [16]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.5 billion CNY, 13.6 billion CNY, and 16.8 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a CAGR of 22.5% [7][16]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 for 2024, corresponding to the target price of 19.44 CNY [7].