Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, with the sector showing signs of recovery in Q2 2024, although the overall market remains in a cyclical bottoming phase [1][4] - In H1 2024, the basic chemical index (CI005006) fell by 19.43%, underperforming the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, which fell by 1.92% and 14.24%, respectively [4] - The industry's revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 1226.323 billion, a slight decrease of 0.91% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 74 billion, down 4.79% YoY [4] - Q2 2024 saw a recovery, with revenue increasing by 3.04% YoY and 3.46% QoQ, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 2.59% YoY and 2.69% QoQ [4] Key Sub-Sectors Performance - In H1 2024, over half of the sub-sectors saw YoY growth in net profit, with notable improvements in nylon, rubber products, and compound fertilizers [4] - Q2 2024 saw significant YoY and QoQ improvements in net profit for sub-sectors such as nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizers, and phosphorus fertilizers [4] - The nylon sub-sector saw a remarkable YoY increase of 1243.75% in net profit, while the rubber products sub-sector grew by 56.12% YoY [12][13] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Capital expenditure in the industry decreased by 16.5% YoY in H1 2024, but construction in progress remained high, indicating a need for further digestion of capacity [4][22] - Demand recovery is slow due to insufficient effective demand, with upward momentum expected to take time to materialize [4] - The industry is in a bottoming phase, with supply-side disruptions and event-driven catalysts creating investment opportunities in sub-sectors like dye chemicals, fluorine chemicals, and civil explosives [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages and growth potential, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and others [4] - Short-term opportunities are expected in rigid supply products like MDI, titanium concentrate, and phosphorus ore, with a potential rebound in H2 2024 driven by domestic policy support and overseas liquidity easing [4] - The industry is expected to gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom in 2025, with a mild recovery anticipated [4] Company Highlights - Wanhua Chemical: Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with multiple projects entering production phases, including the expansion of MDI capacity in Fujian [40][41] - Hualu Hengsheng: Q2 2024 results were in line with expectations, with the Jingzhou Phase II project nearing completion [42][43] - Longbai Group: The company's titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate production increased significantly in H1 2024, with ongoing projects expected to drive future growth [44][45] - Huafon Chemical: Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with the company benefiting from cost advantages and expanding its industrial chain [46][47] - Juhua Group: Q2 2024 results were in line with expectations, with the company maintaining its leading position in the refrigerant quota market [48][49] - Yangnong Chemical: The company's H1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with the Liaoning Youchuang project nearing trial production [50][51] - Xingfa Group: Q2 2024 performance improved QoQ, with high phosphorus ore prices expected to sustain profitability [52] - Guoci Materials: Q2 2024 results met expectations, with the company focusing on long-term growth in multiple product lines [53][54] - Bluesky Technology: H1 2024 performance was in line with expectations, with strong growth in life sciences and metal resource sectors [55] - Ruifeng New Materials: Q2 2024 results were slightly below expectations, but the company maintained a strong export trend [56][57] - Sailun Tire: Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with overseas projects progressing smoothly [58][59]
基础化工行业2024年中报总结：24Q2盈利环比改善，周期磨底静待拐点
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-09-11 10:28