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稀土供需改善,价格有望持续回暖
Minmetals Securities·2024-09-11 08:03

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, suggesting a potential for price recovery in the near term [1]. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand dynamics for rare earths are improving, with a significant reduction in the growth rate of rare earth quotas for 2024, leading to a recent increase in prices [1][9]. - The second batch of rare earth mining and separation quotas for 2024 is set at 135,000 tons and 127,000 tons respectively, remaining consistent with the first batch [1][9]. - The total control indicators for the first two batches of 2024 show a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and 4.2%, compared to much higher growth rates in 2023 [1][9]. - The introduction of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" in October 2024 is expected to further control the mining and production activities, alleviating the oversupply situation in the industry [1][9]. - Demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles and home appliances is anticipated to be supported by recent government measures [1][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Insights - The rare earth price index has shown a week-on-week increase of 4.21%, indicating a recovery trend [1][9]. - Historical data suggests that the first half of the year typically accounts for about 50% of the annual quota, implying limited supply growth for the remainder of 2024 [1][9]. Market Overview - The overall market for non-ferrous metals has seen fluctuations, with the Shenyin Wanguo Metal New Materials Index reporting a week-on-week decline of 3.82% and a year-on-year decline of 24.60% [11][13]. Key Company Performance - The report highlights significant price movements among key companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Guan Shi Technology and Lu Wei Optoelectronics [23][25]. Industry Hotspots - The development of ultra-pure graphite by China Minmetals is noted as a significant advancement, achieving a purity level of over 99.99995%, which is expected to support strategic emerging industries [29].