HPI(SH:600011) GF SECURITIES·2024-09-11 11:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is "Buy - A / Buy - H" [3] Core Views - The controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 0.15%-0.21% of A shares, demonstrating long-term confidence in development. On September 9, Huaneng Group's action partner, Huaneng Structural Adjustment No. 1 Fund, increased its holdings by 15 million A shares, accounting for 0.0956% of the total share capital. The group aims to cumulatively increase its stake by no less than 0.15% and no more than 0.21% within three months [4] - The net asset value is expected to continue to recover, with significant dividend value. The company's adjusted net assets for H1 2024 are projected to be 55.9 billion yuan (excluding perpetual bonds of 79.6 billion yuan), an increase of 6.4% compared to the end of the previous year. The stable profit growth from auxiliary services is expected to support the current ROE and net asset recovery. The cash dividend for 2024, after deducting perpetual bond interest, is estimated at approximately 4.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.9% for A shares and 6.9% for H shares based on the latest closing prices [4] - Stable coal prices, the implementation of auxiliary services, and the signing of electricity and price contracts are key areas to watch. In Q3, thermal power generation is expected to decrease significantly due to water supply impacts, while market coal prices are stabilizing and may decline. Performance is anticipated to exceed expectations. The auxiliary services in Hunan, Yunnan, and Henan are under consultation, with expectations for more provinces to follow suit. Concerns about next year's electricity and price remain, but monitoring Q4 spot coal prices is essential [4] - Earnings forecasts and investment recommendations indicate that EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.70, 0.80, and 0.90 yuan per share, respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 9.46, 8.24, and 7.36 times. The profitability of thermal power is expected to stabilize, and the electricity reform is reshaping value. A target PE of 13 times for 2024 suggests a reasonable value of 9.05 yuan per share for A shares and 5.70 HKD per share for H shares, maintaining a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares [4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 246.725 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.3%. For 2023, revenue is projected at 254.397 billion yuan, a growth rate of 3.1%. The forecast for 2024 is 252.565 billion yuan, indicating a slight decline of 0.7% [4] - The EBITDA for 2022 was 24.461 billion yuan, increasing to 47.361 billion yuan in 2023, with a forecast of 54.073 billion yuan for 2024 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -7.387 billion yuan in 2022, expected to turn positive at 8.446 billion yuan in 2023, and further increase to 10.933 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - The EPS for 2022 was -0.47 yuan, expected to rise to 0.54 yuan in 2023, and further to 0.70 yuan in 2024 [4]