光伏行业2024年半年报总结：供需失衡业绩承压，行业进入深度调整期

Industry Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Views - Domestic photovoltaic installations continue to grow year-on-year, with overseas emerging markets experiencing a surge in demand [1] - Industry competition intensifies, leading to a slowdown in revenue and profit growth [1] - Profitability pressure on main materials, while auxiliary materials show differentiated profitability [1] - Increased inventory pressure on enterprises, with expansion slowing down and the industry awaiting a clearing phase [1] Domestic Installation Growth - Domestic new photovoltaic installations from January to July 2024 reached 123.53GW, a 27% year-on-year increase [1] - Commercial and industrial installations in H1 2024 were 37.03GW, up 90.5% year-on-year [1] - Full-year 2024 domestic new photovoltaic installations are expected to be around 250-260GW, an 18% year-on-year increase [1] Overseas Market Demand - Global new photovoltaic installations in 2024 are expected to reach 450-460GW, a 17% year-on-year increase [1] - Emerging markets such as Pakistan, India, and the Middle East are accelerating their energy transition, supporting overseas demand [1] - Battery and component exports from January to July 2024 were approximately 194.0GW, up 33% year-on-year [1] - Inverter exports in the same period were about 151GW, down 6% year-on-year, but showing recovery since Q2 2024 [1] Industry Competition and Revenue - Core photovoltaic companies achieved revenue of 4485.2 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 20.7% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2376.5 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year but up 12.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Main material prices have been declining, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth [1] Profitability and Margins - Main material segments face profitability pressure, with gross margins under pressure due to price declines [1] - Auxiliary material segments show stable gross margins, with inverters and brackets maintaining higher profitability [1] - Q2 2024 net profit margins for main materials further declined, with most companies in the main chain entering a loss phase [1] - Auxiliary material segments show differentiated net profit margins, with inverters maintaining strong profitability [1] Inventory and Expansion - Inventory pressure increased across the industry, with photovoltaic glass and brackets showing significant inventory growth [1] - Fixed asset growth slowed, indicating fewer new production capacities being added [1] - Construction in progress for main materials like silicon wafers and components slowed, while battery segments saw new N-type technology capacities [1] - Operating cash flow turned positive in Q2 2024, reaching 7.59 billion yuan [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on inverter segments with improving demand expectations, such as Deye, AISWEI, GoodWe, Ginlong, Sungrow, and others [1] - Pay attention to leading companies in auxiliary materials, including FST, Arctech, Yihua, Flat, Xinyi Solar, and others [1] Financial Data and Trends - Photovoltaic sector's operating cash flow showed seasonal patterns, with Q1 2024 significantly lower due to profit deterioration [1] - Q2 2024 operating cash flow improved, turning positive at 7.59 billion yuan [1] - Profit pressure and financing restrictions may accelerate industry capacity clearing [1]