1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In late Q1, institutional behavior in the bond market has changed. The allocation disk has strong buying power, while funds and wealth management products are relatively weak. The "fixed - income +" products are facing significant redemption pressure, and the bond market strategy focuses on short - term 3 - 5y term spread compression and long - term opportunities after over - decline [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Quarter: Characteristics of Bond Buying by Various Institutions 3.1.1 Overall Bond Buying by Institutions in Q1: Strong Allocation Disk, Weak Funds and Wealth Management - **Allocation Disk**: Large banks significantly increased net purchases of government bonds over 5y. Small and medium - sized banks increased net purchases of 30y government bonds and 20y local bonds. Insurance companies, driven by dividend - paying insurance, included 3 - 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds in their top five holdings [13]. - **Trading Disk**: Securities firms' net purchases were in line with seasonality, with a significant reduction in duration, more allocation to 1y interest rates and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and reduction of ultra - long bonds. Funds still focused on credit coupons, increasing the proportion of 1 - 5y credit and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [13]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: In Q1, due to the priority of "deposit rush" tasks in the banking system, the scale growth of bank wealth management was weak, and the net purchases of direct investment and entrusted investment in the secondary market both increased less. In terms of structure, direct investment shortened the term, and entrusted investment increased the exploration of spreads in policy - financial bonds [14]. 3.1.2 By Institution: Insurance Enters the Allocation Window at the End of the Quarter, and Wealth Management Will Follow in Q2 - **Banks**: They have a strong demand for long - term bonds. At the end of the quarter, the pressure to realize profits is not large, and there is still a need for bond allocation in the future [18]. - **Insurance**: The "good start" funds entered the allocation window in March, and the bond - allocation progress is slower than last year, with potential for further allocation. Attention should be paid to the spread compression opportunities of ultra - long local bonds in Q2 [23]. - **Funds**: From the end of Q1 to Q2, there is usually a seasonal recovery in bond - buying power. In Q2, it is conducive to the spread compression of policy - financial bonds [25][28]. - **Wealth Management**: It is expected to see scale growth and a peak season for bond allocation in Q2. Attention can be paid to the spread compression opportunities of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [29]. - **Securities Firms**: They continue to short - sell 30y government bonds and start to buy 50y government bonds [30]. 3.2 "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: How Big Is the Pressure? 3.2.1 Recent "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: Greater Pressure than in November 2025 and January 2026, Close to the Russia - Ukraine Conflict Period - In March, the equity market declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points, leading to a significant increase in the redemption pressure of "fixed - income +" funds. The redemption pressure is stronger than in the previous two rounds and is close to that during the Russia - Ukraine conflict [34][41]. 3.2.2 When Will the Redemption Ease? Pay Attention to the Policy - making Layer's Expectations for Market Stability and the Use of Tools - The central bank recently held a party committee meeting, showing an earlier demand to maintain the stable operation of the stock market. Looking back at the situation after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, relevant meetings and policies helped stabilize the market. The central bank has innovated a series of financial policies to support the stable operation of the capital market. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the "claims on other financial corporations" item [43][44][47]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy: Focus on 3 - 5y Term Spread Compression in the Short - Term and Seize Opportunities after Over - Decline in the Long - Term 3.3.1 This Week: α Spread Compression for Bonds within 5y - This week, the short - term bonds performed well. The certificate of deposit (CD) yield dropped close to 1.5%, driving the α spread compression of bonds within 5y [48]. 3.3.2 Short - Term: Limited Downward Space for 1y Bonds, Potential for Continuous Compression of 3 - 5y Spreads - The space for 1y short - term leverage to capture interest rate spreads has been extremely compressed, and the focus of bond selection may shift to 3 - 5y bonds. CDs may fluctuate at a low level of 1.5 - 1.55% in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in funds at the end of the quarter [51][56]. 3.3.3 Long - Term: 10y Government Bonds to Fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, 30y Government Bonds' Sentiment to Stabilize, Pay Attention to Over - Decline Recovery - **10y Government Bonds**: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.85%. It is recommended to hold existing assets and gradually increase positions for incremental funds if the yield continues to rise. - **30y Government Bonds**: The core fluctuation range of the 30 - 10y active bond spread may be 40 - 50bp. Traders can pay attention to trading opportunities when the spread widens to over 50bp, and allocators can gradually enter the market when the 30y government bond yield rises above 2.3%. Attention can also be paid to the spread - mining value of 4 - 5y China Development Bank bonds, 10y China Development Bank bonds, and 20y local bonds [57][60][61]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: CDs Hit a New Low, and the Yield Curve Steepened - **Funding**: The central bank's open - market operations (OMO) had a net injection, and the funding situation was balanced and loose [76]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of government bonds and local bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank CDs decreased [80]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of government bonds and China Development Bank bonds both widened [86].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业周报（20260316-20260322） 推荐（维持） 创想三维招股书梳理：匠心无界，三维生花 ❑ 创想三维招股书梳理：匠心无界，三维生花 轻工制造 2026 年 03 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 165 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 11,040.01 | 0.89 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,403.55 | 0.95 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.9% | 6.9% | 21.5% | | 相对表现 | -2.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | -11% 3% 18% 33% 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 26/01 26/03 2025-03- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 平安银行（000001）2025 年报点评 推荐（维持） 核心营收有所改善，财富管理业务发展较好 事项： ❖ 3 月 20 日晚，平安银行披露 2025 年年报，实现营业收入 1314.42 亿元，同比 下降 10.4%；归母净利润 426.33 亿元，同比下降 4.2%。不良率环比持平于 1.05%，拨备覆盖率 221%，环比下降 8.7pct。公司宣布年度每股派发现金股利 0.596 元（含税），分红率达 28.83%，同比提升 0.5pct。 评论： 公司研究 全国性股份制银行Ⅲ 2026 年 03 月 22 日 -39% -19% 2% 22% 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 26/01 26/03 2025-03-21~2026-03-20 平安银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 | 目标价：15.03 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：10.77 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukan ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中信银行（601998）2025 年报点评 推荐（维持） 营收增速拐点向上，分红率提升至 31.75% 事项： ❖ 3 月 20 日晚，中信银行披露 25 年年报，2025 全年实现营业收入 2124.75 亿 元，同比降幅收窄至-0.55%（1-3Q25 为-3.46%）；营业利润 836.74 亿元，同比 增长 3.39%（1-3Q25 为 4.7%）；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 706.18 亿元， 同比增长 2.98%（1-3Q25 为 3.02%）。不良率环比-1bp 至 1.15%，拨备覆盖率 环比下降 0.6pct 至 203.6%。 评论： 公司研究 全国性股份制银行Ⅲ 2026 年 03 月 22 日 目标价：10.43 元/9.82 港元 当前价：7.97 元/7.37 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：徐康 -10% 0% 11% 21% 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 26/01 26/03 2025-03-20~2026-03-20 中信银 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】 择时信号以中性为主，后市或中性偏空 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场涨少跌多，上证指数单周下跌 3.38%，创业板指单周上涨 1.26%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型看多。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型绝大部分宽基指数中性。月历效应 模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益差相似模 型中性。 本周行业指数普遍下跌，除通信、银行外所有行业均下跌，跌幅前五的行业为： 有色金属、钢铁、基础化工、建材、建筑。从资金流向角度来说，所有行业主 力资金净流出，其中有色金属、基础化工、电子、计算机、电力设备及新能源 主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 96.75%，相较于上周增加了 38 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 89.92%，相较于上周减少了 21 个 bps。 本周机械与通信获得最大机构加仓，电子与石油石化获得最大机构减仓。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 志高机械（920101）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 888 | 907 | 1,123 | 1,454 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.7% | 2.1% | 23.7% | 29.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 106 | 120 | 161 | 219 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.5% | 14.2% | 34.4% | 35.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.81 | 2.46 | | 市盈率(倍) | 30 | 27 | 20 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 5.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 20 日收盘价 其他通用机械 2026 年 03 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0315-0321）：套息空间压缩，小 行配置需求走弱 债券周报 2026 年 03 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 "固收+"基金赎回对信用债冲击大么？ ——信用周报20260321 ❖ 本周信用债收益率多数下行，中短端表现偏强，信用利差走势分化。美伊局势 继续演化，油价高位波动，股市震荡，短端债券品种受益于资金宽松和债市谨 慎情绪表现较好，长端品种则受制于通胀预期和交易空间约束继续盘整。信用 债跟随市场波动，中短端品种表现较好。 ❖ "固收+"基金赎回对信用债冲击大么？ 2025 年下半年"反内卷"行情启动带动市场风险偏好回升，且大量定期存款 到期寻求替代产品，"固收+"基金规模快速增长，混合二级债基由 2024 年末 的 6935 亿元增长至 2025 年末的 15810 亿元。 相较于纯债基金，固收+基金信用配置需求更大。截至 2025 年末，混合二级债 基债券配置占比为 82.08%，股票配置占比为 13.90%；其中持仓债券中 37%为 金融债（主要为银行二永债）、35%为普信债、15%为政金债。相较于中长期纯 债型基金，固收+类基金的信用债配置占比更大，因此市场关注固收+产品赎回 压力较大时，信用债是否会面临抛售压力。 近期股市调整，"固收+"基金赎回强度明显加大。本周"固 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年3月21日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第167期 医药零售：2025全渠道数据更新及B2C财报总结 本周专题联系人：高初蕾 | 华创医药团队： | | | --- | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号：S0360523080006邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360524070007邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执业编号：S0360525060002邮箱：che ...

2、地产：（1）新房：本周 30 城新房成交面积环比+12.7%，周同比+13%，较 前周收窄。（2）二手房：成交加速上行。本周 17 城二手房成交面积环比 +15.1%，同比-9.7%，比前周改善。二手房"小阳春"行情好于同期。 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 施工指标加速回暖 ——每周高频跟踪 20260321 （1）动力煤：煤价降幅收窄。近期消费淡季、电厂耗煤偏弱，但进口煤价 格深度倒挂，采购需求转向内贸，货盘集中释放。 （2）螺纹钢：价格延续上涨，年内首次累库转为去库。螺纹钢（HRB400 20mm）现货价格环比+0.3%，螺纹钢社会库存环比-0.9%。螺纹表观需求环 比+17.5%，继续改善。 （3）沥青：开工率加速回落。伊朗地缘因素导致原料端供给不确定性，沥 青产量环比继续下滑。当前终端项目需求偏少，高价抑制成交，沥青处于供 需双弱。 ❖ 消费相关：油价高位震荡 1、出行：25 城地铁客运量小幅下探。本周 25 城地铁客运量日均 320.9 万人 次，环比-1.3%。 2、原油：美伊局势不确定性仍大，国际油价高位波动。目前各主要产油国 因外运航运能力受阻等原因减少原油供应担忧，支撑油价上涨。 ❖ 风 ...