证 券 研 究 报 告 科华数据（002335）跟踪分析报告 推荐（维持） 公司研究 储能 2026 年 02 月 10 日 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张雅容 邮箱：zhangyarong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525110004 公司基本数据 算力驱动，数据中心向好发展 目标价：71.20 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 7,757 | 9,271 | 12,703 | 16,545 | | 同比增速(%) | -4.7% | 19.5% | 37.0% | 30.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 315 | 562 | 830 | 1,223 | | 同比增速(%) | -37.9% | 78.2% | 47.8% | 47.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.61 | 1.09 | 1.61 | 2.37 | | 市盈率(倍) | 97 | 55 | 37 | 25 | | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 全球降息潮或近尾声 ——全球货币转向跟踪第 11 期 如果说 2024-2025 年是全球央行的"大放水"激进阶段，那么 2026 年可能将 是"大放水"尾声的缓和阶段。 ❖ 一、全球货币政策转向跟踪 1、全球利率图谱：美欧日央行集体"按兵不动"。2026 年年初以来，我们跟 踪的全球 26 个主要经济体中仅有 1 个经济体降息（以色列）、一个经济体加息 （澳大利亚）。美、欧、日央行均未调整政策利率。 2、全球利率预期：美欧央行降息预期偏弱，全球降息潮近尾声。 美联储：经济韧性强意味着预防式降息后可放缓降息节奏。目前市场预期 2026 年美联储降息次数约 2 次。 欧央行：由于欧央行是单一的通胀目标制央行，目前通胀已达到目标区间，市 场预期 2026 年欧央行可能不再降息。 日央行：日本目前处于"类滞涨"状态，日央行存在进退两难的矛盾。目前市 场预期 2026 年日央行加息次数约 2 次。 3、中国内地利率所处位置：名义利率已低于日本。实际利率温和下降至 2.1%， 所处历史分位数也下降至 46%左右，但在全球 13 个经济体中仍处于偏高水平 (位列第 10)。 ...

资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 9 日收盘价 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 科华数据（002335）跟踪分析报告 推荐（维持） 算力驱动，数据中心向好发展 目标价：71.20 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 7,757 | 9,271 | 12,703 | 16,545 | | 同比增速(%) | -4.7% | 19.5% | 37.0% | 30.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 315 | 562 | 830 | 1,223 | | 同比增速(%) | -37.9% | 78.2% | 47.8% | 47.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.61 | 1.09 | 1.61 | 2.37 | | 市盈率(倍) | 97 | 55 | 37 | 25 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 储能 2026 年 02 月 10 日 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业跟踪报告 推荐（维持） 预制菜将迎国标，行业规范化加速 事项： 2 月 6 日，国家卫健委发布《食品安全国家标准预制菜》（征求意见稿），正式 面向社会公开征求意见。同日，国务院食安办、市场监管总局、商务部起草了 《推广餐饮环节自主明示的公告（公开征求意见稿）》，向社会公开征求意见。 评论： 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 02 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 5.0% | | 相对表现 | 3.7% | -12.4% | -16.2% | -8% 2% 13% 23% 25/02 25/04 25/07 25/09 25/11 26/02 2025-02-10~2026-02-09 食品饮料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to 8.42 billion units, down from 32.79 billion units, but remains at a historically high level[8] - The net outflow of margin financing has increased to 52.1 billion CNY, marking a 2% percentile over the past three years[13] - The net inflow of southbound funds has surged to 49.83 billion CNY, reaching a historical high and representing a 96% percentile[40] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 17 percentage points to 49%[46] - The trading heat for the liquor sector has risen by 10 percentage points to 15%[53] - The trading heat for the communication sector has also increased by 10 percentage points to 47%[66] - The trading heat for the home appliance sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 47%[53] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 162.44 billion CNY, a decrease of 54.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 87.4% percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.5% on February 2, leading to an increase in self-media search interest in A-shares[73]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company reported a consolidated revenue of NT$177.915 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.5% [2][9] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 19.5%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year and 2.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to high capacity utilization in the ATM factories, product mix optimization, and favorable currency effects [2][9] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of NT$14.713 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 58% year-over-year increase [10] Financial Performance Overview Q4 2025 Performance - Revenue reached NT$1779.15 billion, with a gross margin of 19.5% [2][9] - The semiconductor packaging segment (ATM) generated NT$1097.07 billion in revenue, a 24.2% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 26.3% [2][13] - The electronic manufacturing services segment (EMS) reported revenue of NT$689.91 billion, down 7.9% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 9.0% [2][20] Full Year 2025 Performance - Total revenue for 2025 was NT$6453.88 billion, an 8.4% year-over-year increase, with the ATM segment's revenue share rising to 60% [3][11] - The gross margin for the year was 17.7%, with a net profit of NT$406.58 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year [3][11] Business Segment Revenue Semiconductor Packaging (ATM) - Q4 2025 revenue was NT$1097.07 billion, with a gross margin of 26.3% [2][13] - The segment's revenue for 2025 was NT$3892.28 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase [18] Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) - Q4 2025 revenue was NT$689.91 billion, with a gross margin of 9.0% [20] - The segment's revenue for 2025 was NT$2590.79 billion, down 5% year-over-year [24] Performance Guidance Q1 2026 Guidance - The company expects a mild revenue decline of 5%-7% quarter-over-quarter for Q1 2026, with a gross margin decrease of 0.5-1 percentage points [4][25] Full Year 2026 Guidance - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with ATM performance expected to outperform the logic semiconductor market [4][26] Market Outlook and Strategic Layout - The industry is in a long-term upward cycle driven by AI, with growth extending to edge devices [5][30] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to approach US$4.9 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced capacity [5][30] - The company is expanding its operations in Penang, Malaysia, to meet global manufacturing demands [5][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on xTool as a leading player in the laser tool market [5]. Core Insights - The personal creative tools market is rapidly growing, with a projected increase from USD 4 billion in 2022 to USD 6.8 billion in 2024, corresponding to a CAGR of 31.0%. The market is expected to reach USD 39.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 33.8% from 2024 to 2030 [9][12]. - xTool has established a dominant position in the laser tool segment, achieving a market share of approximately 37% in the global personal creative tools market and 47% in the core laser engraving/cutting machine market as of September 2025 [23][24]. - The brand xTool, founded in 2021, has transitioned from STEAM education to consumer-grade laser engraving machines, creating a comprehensive ecosystem of hardware, software, and community engagement [27]. Industry Overview Market Size - The personal creative tools market is segmented into additive and non-additive tools, with non-additive tools, including laser tools, showing significant growth. The global penetration rate of laser tools is expected to rise from 11.2% in 2022 to 15.3% in 2024 [9][14]. - The market for additive tools is projected to grow from USD 2.3 billion in 2022 to USD 4.1 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.7% [12]. Competitive Landscape - The laser tool market is characterized by a concentrated competitive structure, with xTool leading the market. The top five brands in the laser engraving and cutting machine market are expected to account for 60% of the GMV in 2024 [23][24]. - xTool's market share in the DTF printer segment is rapidly increasing, reaching 12.7% despite entering the market later than competitors [26]. Company Performance - xTool's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 1.457 billion in 2023 to CNY 2.476 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 69.97%. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025 due to product launch timing [29]. - The average selling price of laser tools has increased from CNY 15,600 per unit in 2023 to CNY 21,100 per unit in 2025 [29][36]. Market Trends - The report highlights a positive trend in the light industry manufacturing sector, with the sub-sectors of entertainment products and packaging printing showing increases of 1.85% and 1.78%, respectively, outperforming the broader market [42][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. Second-hand housing transactions in 11 cities also saw a week-on-week decrease of 7% but a year-on-year increase of 174% [6][21][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: the decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,270.717 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,217.136 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the sixth week, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 170 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 147% [22][21]. - The average daily transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 199 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 174% [27][30]. Policy News - Fujian Province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu Province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, investment in leading shopping centers, and monitoring leading real estate agencies for efficiency improvements [6].