证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 关注央行买债规模，资金预期延续平稳 ——11 月流动性月报 ❖ 一、10 月资金面回顾：季初积极投放，中枢持稳 资金面回顾：央行积极呵护，平抑资金波动。10 月初 3M 买断式逆回购前置 操作 1.1 万亿对冲大量逆回购到期的摩擦；月中在缴款压力相对有限的情况 下，资金价格延续平稳运行；月末，MLF 积极投放，金融街论坛宣布将恢复 国债买卖，进一步确认央行呵护思路，税期资金价格短暂波动后回归平稳。 超储水平：超储水平明显改善。流动性总量方面，10 月基础货币全月或减少 1.1 万亿元；此外，准备金释放或在 800 亿元附近，取现对超储的补充或在 400 亿附近，非金融机构存款变化对超储的补充或在 800 亿元附近。故月末超储或 减少 9000 亿左右，超储率或在 1.4%左右，处于季节性水平，扣除逆回购之后 的狭义超储水平或在 0.66%附近，较上月明显修复。从工具的期限结构来看， 银行或仍需要偏长期限的流动性投放。截至 10 月末 OMO 及 3M 左右的买断 式余额占其他存款性公司债权的 25%左右，相较 8 至 9 月有小幅下滑，但幅 度仍较为有限。 ❖ 二、10 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 晶晨股份（688099）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 前三季度收入创新高，6nm 产品快速放量 事项： ❖ 公司发布2025年三季报：公司2025年三季度实现营收17.41亿元（YoY+7.20%， QoQ-3.33%），实现归母净利润 2.01 亿元（YoY-13.14%，QoQ-34.76%），实现 扣非后归母净利润 1.73 亿元（YoY-19.31%，QoQ-39.96%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,926 | 7,471 | 9,201 | 10,261 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.3% | 26.1% | 23.2% | 11.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 822 | 1,039 | 1,398 | 1,817 | | 同比增速(%) | 65.0% | 26.4% | 34.5% | 30.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.95 | 2. ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 京仪装备（688652）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 25Q3 收入同比高增长，多元化产品布局助力 长期发展 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,026 | 1,441 | 1,981 | 2,647 | | 同比增速(%) | 38.3% | 40.4% | 37.5% | 33.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 153 | 177 | 308 | 446 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.4% | 15.5% | 74.2% | 45.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.91 | 1.05 | 1.83 | 2.66 | | 市盈率(倍) | 102 | 88 | 51 | 35 | | 市净率(倍) | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 6 日收盘价 半导体设备 202 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 超威半导体（AMD）FY25Q3 业绩点评及说明会纪要 CPU&GPU 共振向上，推动新一轮成长 会议地点：线上 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 11 月 5 日 AMD 发布 FY2025Q3 报告，FY2025Q3 截止至 2025 年 9 月 31 日，即自然季度 CY2025Q3，并召开业绩说明会。 1.业绩情况：25Q3 营收 92 亿美元，同比增长 36%，环比增长 20%。GAAP 毛 利率为 54%，同比+40bps；Non-GAAP 毛利率为 54%。Non-GAAP EPS 为 1.20 美元，同比增长 30%。自由现金流达 15 亿美元创纪录。 2. 营收划分：（1）数据中心部门：25Q3 数据中心部门营收为 43 亿美元创纪 录，同比增长 22%，环比增长 34%，主要受第五代 EPYC"都灵"处理器和 Instinct MI350 系列 GPU 强劲增长驱动。25Q3 营业利润率为 25%，去年同期 为 29%。（2）客户端和游戏部门：25Q3 客户端和游戏业务部门的营收为 40 亿 美元创纪录，同比增长 73%，环比增长 12%。其中，客户端业务营收 28 亿美 ...

兆驰股份（002429）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（下调） 证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 20,326 | 18,793 | 21,332 | 23,466 | | 同比增速(%) | 18.4% | -7.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,602 | 1,322 | 1,622 | 2,082 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | -17.5% | 22.7% | 28.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.35 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.46 | | 市盈率(倍) | 18 | 21 | 17 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 短期业绩承压，期待盈利能力逐步修复 目标价：7.00 元 事项： 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 6 日收盘价 公司研究 黑 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略快评】 反内卷成效显现，供需格局优化下商品价格有望筑底回暖，伴随 PPI 回归新一 轮盈利上行周期有望开启，关注低估值高弹性周期品。 不只高低切，更是反内卷 ❖ 10 月以来高低切持续进行，除行业分化达到阈值后交易层面的调整以外，我 们认为近期周期强势的原因有二：1、政策层面，《求是》发文催化反内卷第二 轮政策加速，反内卷写入五年规划拉长投资久期；2、牛市驱动转向实物再通 胀，M1 与企业现金回暖提供再通胀的流动性环境，供需改善有望推动通胀回 归，紧供给的周期品弹性更强。 ❖ 《求是》发文催化反内卷第二轮政策加速，五年规划拉长投资久期。 7/1 财经委会议标志着反内卷从此前高层喊话转向中央政府政策制定和地方政 府加速执行，类比 15 年 11 月中央财经领导小组提出供给侧结构性改革，通过 先供给出清后需求刺激的政策组合优化供需结构，推动通胀回归。9/16《求是》 刊发习总书记在二十届中央财经委员会第六次会议上的讲话，反内卷政策紧迫 性和战略高度进一步提升，政策开启第二轮加速。十大行业稳增长行动方案陆 续出台，对比来看，2023 年的方案更侧重于需求和增长目标，本次方案则 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Arista Networks Inc's FY25Q3 performance was strong, with revenue of $2.308 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27.5%. The company is confident about its future development, with AI and campus businesses as key growth drivers [3]. - The company's technology innovation in AI and cloud business, such as Etherlink and AVA, has enhanced network performance and automation. It has also formed a gradient product layout and is expanding its customer base [4]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $2.3 - $2.4 billion, with a gross margin of 62% - 63% [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ANET2025Q3 Performance 25Q3 Performance Overview - Revenue in 25Q3 was approximately $2.31 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27.5%, achieving 19 consecutive quarters of record - breaking growth. Non - GAAP gross margin was 65.2%, down 40bps quarter - on - quarter and up 60bps year - on - year. Operating profit was $1.12 billion, accounting for 48.6% of revenue, and net profit was $962.3 million, accounting for 41.7% of revenue. Diluted shares were 1.277 billion, and EPS was $0.75, a year - on - year increase of 25% [7]. Business Segment Performance - **AI Business**: Progressed smoothly, with a target revenue of $1.5 billion in 2025 and $2.75 billion in 2026, becoming a key growth engine [3][8]. - **Campus Business**: Performed strongly, with a target revenue of $750 - 800 million in 2025 and $1.25 billion in 2026, achieving a record - high single - quarter result this quarter [3][9]. - **Other Businesses**: Core network businesses in traditional fields such as cloud and enterprise grew steadily with market demand, and the growth of product - related deferred revenue reflected strong market demand for new products and AI solutions [10]. 2025Q4 Company Performance Guidance - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $2.3 - $2.4 billion, gross margin between 62% - 63%, operating margin about 47% - 48%, actual tax rate about 21.5%, and diluted shares about 1.281 billion [11]. Meeting Content - **Growth Trend**: Shipments and revenues fluctuate with supply, and there is no problem with demand. The revenue in Q2 2025 exceeded expectations, so quarterly fluctuations are not over - interpreted. The difference in product gross margins is due to the customer structure, not a change in the 2026 gross margin model [12]. - **Gross Margin Drivers**: Service and software profit margins were overestimated. The product profit margins of cloud and AI giants are significantly lower than 60%, while those of enterprise customers are higher. A higher proportion of cloud and AI products in the portfolio puts pressure on the gross margin [13]. - **Company Positioning**: Participating in 5 - 7 accelerator rack projects, with related designs to be promoted in 2026 and implemented in 2027. Adopting the "Blue Box JDM model" instead of the traditional OEM model [14]. - **Customer - related Issues**: - In cloud giant customers, the share is stable. Procurement decisions are jointly made by LLM providers and cloud giants [15]. - Three of the four core customers have completed the deployment of over 100,000 GPU clusters, and the fourth is about to achieve it. Fluctuations in Q4 shipments are supply - driven [16]. - **Business Outlook**: - AI and campus businesses are high - growth tracks, while the core business may have flat or low - single - digit growth. The company is confident of achieving over $10 billion in revenue in 2026 and a future target of $15 billion [18][19]. - The Blue Box business has a slightly lower gross margin than branded EOS devices. It targets professional cloud providers and key customers, and its development trend in 2026 will continue [20][23]. - The front - end and back - end networks are increasingly converging, and the company is the only one outside China to cover both, which is a core differentiating advantage [21]. - The company offers both DSF and non - scheduling architectures, and DSF is attracting more attention [22]. - The UEC released the 1.0 specification in June 2025, and the company's products are fully compatible. The expansion of the alliance and the implementation of specifications in 2026 - 2027 are key milestones [25]. - Emerging cloud厂商customers have great growth potential, and some initially use bundled solutions but more choose to cooperate with the company [26][27]. - The enterprise market focuses on three breakthrough directions: campus business, geographical expansion, and new customer acquisition [28]. - The company's core growth engine is new network construction in AI - driven data centers [29]. - The company plans differently for different business lines to ensure delivery capabilities [30].

证 券 研 究 报 告 江淮汽车（600418）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 尊界开启交付，贡献营收及毛利同环比增长 事项： 公司发布 2025 年三季报，营收 115 亿元，同比+5.5%，环比+20%，归母净利 -6.6 亿元，同比-9.9 亿元，环比-1.1 亿元。 | 目标价：70.02 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：48.16 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 联系人：张睿希 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 42,202 | 45,623 | 69,199 | 85,399 | | 同比增速(%) | -6.3% | 8.1% | 51.7% | 23.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -1,784 | -1,539 | 2,05 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.71 CNY [1][5] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable recovery in Q3 2025, achieving a revenue of 37.80 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 41.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.6% [5] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity, with its Hungarian facility fully operational and ongoing projects in the United States, which positions it favorably in the global lithium battery market [5] - Progress in solid-state battery technology is promising, with the company’s subsidiaries achieving milestones in production and technology development [5] Financial Performance Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 10,164 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with an expected growth of 22.6% to 12,463 million CNY [1][6] - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025 with a projected net profit of 93 million CNY, a significant turnaround from a loss of 556 million CNY in 2024 [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.57 CNY in 2024 to 0.10 CNY in 2025, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [1][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is one of the first in the Chinese lithium battery industry to establish overseas production capabilities, providing it with a competitive edge in the global market [5] - The strategic focus on solid-state battery materials and the establishment of production lines for high-purity lithium sulfide and solid electrolyte membranes indicate a strong commitment to innovation and future growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 results that met expectations, with revenue of 48.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.37 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year but up 8.1% quarter-on-quarter. The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 14.2 billion HKD [2][6]. - The company is leveraging its "A+H" dual capital platform strategy to enhance brand recognition in international markets and accelerate global expansion [2][6]. - The new model, Wanjie M8, has shown strong sales performance, contributing to the overall sales growth of 142,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.1% [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 sales volume reached 142,000 units, with Wanjie sales at 124,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16%. The average selling price (ASP) was 339,000 yuan, up 2,800 yuan year-on-year and 700 yuan quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 29.9%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The company plans to allocate the funds raised from the IPO as follows: 40% for technology R&D, 30% for product development, 20% for marketing and overseas sales, and 10% for working capital [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth in sales and profitability, driven by the successful launch of new models and the internationalization process accelerated by the Hong Kong IPO. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 168.8 billion, 237.1 billion, and 268.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 8.3 billion, 13.6 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 195.80 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 38% based on a 25x PE ratio for 2026 [6][7].