证 券 研 究 报 告 理想汽车-W（02015.HK）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（下调） MEGA 召回拖累净利，公司进入新一轮发展期 港股公司 事项： 理想汽车发布 2025 年三季报，3Q25 实现营收 274 亿元，同比-36%，环比- 10%；归母净利润-6.2 亿元，同比-34 亿元，环比-17 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 144,460 | 111,595 | 153,319 | 180,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.6% | -22.7% | 37.4% | 17.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8,032 | 1,053 | 6,332 | 10,278 | | 同比增速(%) | -31.4% | -86.9% | 501.2% | 62.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.79 | 0.49 | 2.96 | 4.80 | | 市盈率(倍) ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 可孚医疗（301087）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 核心品类表现亮眼，业务出海加速推进 目标价：56 元 事项： 公司发布 25 年三季报。25Q1-3，营业收入 23.98 亿元（+6.63%），归母净利润 2.60 亿元（+3.30%），扣非净利润 2.22 亿元（+1.46%）。25Q3，营业收入 9.02 亿元（+30.72%），归母净利润 0.93 亿元（+38.68%），扣非净利润 0.86 亿元 （+62.68%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,983 | 3,346 | 3,890 | 4,556 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.5% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 17.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 312 | 375 | 452 | 543 | | 同比增速(%) | 22.6% | 20.2% | 20.5% | 20.2% | | 每股 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海尔生物（688139）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 新产业收入占比提升，海外业务动能持续 目标价：44 元 事项： 公司发布 25 年三季报。25Q1-3，营业收入 17.61 亿元（-1.17%），归母净利润 1.98 亿元（-35.83%），扣非净利润 1.73 亿元（-37.20%）。25Q3，营业收入 5.66 亿元（+1.24%），归母净利润 0.56 亿元（-25.60%），扣非净利润 0.50 亿元（- 22.47%）。 评论： | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,284 | 2,319 | 2,558 | 2,850 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.1% | 1.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 367 | 259 | 294 | 334 | | 同比增速(%) | -9.7% | -29.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.15 | 0. ...

Overall Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that demand is the source of strength and innovation is the light that breaks the deadlock in the pharmaceutical industry. The continuous demand for pharmaceuticals and the increasing unmet needs drive pharmaceutical companies to invest in research and development, leading to explosive revenue and stock price growth [5][7][13]. Innovation Drugs - China has become a significant participant in global innovative drug research and development, with a high-quality growth rate of therapies in development far exceeding the global average. The domestic innovative drug sector is entering a revenue era driven by innovation, creating a positive dynamic between traditional pharmaceutical companies and emerging players [5][7][27]. - The number of domestic new drug overseas authorizations has surpassed $10 billion since 2021, indicating a sustained increase in overseas authorization activity, which continues to propel China's innovative drugs into the global market [5][7][27]. Pharmaceutical Industry - The report indicates that the innovative layout in the pharmaceutical industry is beginning to yield results, with performance expected to accelerate. Many companies are transitioning to a growth phase driven by innovation, suggesting that the current period is just the beginning of a more significant performance acceleration [5][7][27]. CXO Sector - Starting in the second half of 2024, global pharmaceutical research and development demand is expected to gradually recover, with strong demand for new molecular types such as peptides and ADCs driving growth in the CDMO segment. The value of leading CRO companies is anticipated to further highlight as the difficulty and barriers in drug development increase [5][7][27]. API Sector - The core business of API companies is primarily focused on non-U.S. exports (to Europe and India), with current demand remaining strong. Leading companies are achieving positive results in expanding into CDMO businesses, and many have integrated local market formulation businesses, which are expected to benefit from the easing of centralized procurement policies [5][7][27]. Medical Devices - The high-value consumables sector is experiencing a reduction in procurement pressure, with performance expected to return to a high growth trajectory. The report highlights that the bidding for medical devices is recovering, indicating an upcoming turning point for the sector, with optimism for domestic equipment technology upgrades and international expansion [5][7][27]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report expresses optimism for the recovery of the traditional Chinese medicine sector in 2026, with upward factors outweighing downward ones. The expected recovery sequence for sub-sectors includes hospital-based traditional Chinese medicine, four categories of drugs, OTC common drugs, and high-value consumer traditional Chinese medicine [5][7][27]. Medical Services - The report anticipates that with the introduction of several positive macro policies, consumer expectations are likely to recover. If favorable local fiscal policies are implemented, the bad debts and payment cycles for private hospitals will also see substantial relief, alleviating market concerns [5][7][27]. Pharmaceutical Retail - The pharmaceutical retail sector has faced continuous pressure since Q3 2024, primarily due to declining demand for four categories of drugs, consumption downgrading, intensified competition, and fluctuations in medical insurance policies. However, as high baselines are gradually digested, the revenue growth of leading chains is expected to stabilize and improve [5][7][27]. Blood Products - Despite short-term performance pressures, the essential nature of blood products indicates that supply and demand are expected to rebalance. The diversity of products among companies is rapidly increasing, with high-value new products like immunoglobulin expected to drive industry growth [5][7][27]. Life Sciences Services - The life sciences services sector is experiencing a demand recovery, coupled with deepening domestic substitution and ongoing overseas expansion, leading to a positive quarterly revenue growth starting from Q4 2024. The net profit margin of the sector has been gradually improving, indicating sustained profitability [5][7][27].

证 券 研 究 报 告 澳华内镜（688212）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 收入端拐点已至，新品 AQ-400 放量可期 事项： ❖ 公司发布 25 年三季报。25Q1-3，营业收入 4.23 亿元（-15.57%），归母净利润 -0.56 亿元（24 年同期 0.37 亿元），扣非净利润-0.68 亿元（24 年同期 0.15 亿 元）。25Q3，营业收入 1.62 亿元（+10.37%），归母净利润-0.15 亿元（24 年同 期 0.32 亿元），扣非净利润-0.16 亿元（24 年同期 0.16 亿元）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 750 | 753 | 943 | 1,137 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.5% | 0.4% | 25.3% | 20.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 21 | 11 | 83 | 116 | | 同比增速(%) | -63.7% | -45.5% ...

电力行业 2026 年度投资策略 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐（维持） 看好海风成长潜力，火水核价值回归可期 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 行业研究 电力及公用事业 2025 年 11 月 26 日 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 226 | 0.03 | | 总市值( ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for improvement in the dry bulk shipping market, particularly for Capesize vessels, with freight rates expected to rise further based on the second half of 2025 [3][10] - The West Simandou iron ore project is highlighted as a key catalyst, expected to disrupt the current iron ore supply dominance of Australia and Brazil, with a projected increase in global iron ore demand by approximately 6.8% post full production [3][10] Shipping Industry Overview - The shipping industry is projected to experience a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with limited supply growth and potential demand increases due to various factors, including the West Simandou project and macroeconomic conditions [8][12] - The total market capitalization of the shipping sector is reported at 579.568 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 458.746 billion yuan [4] Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is expected to benefit from a global oil production increase, sanctions improving demand structure, and supply constraints, leading to a sustained upward trend in market conditions [6][9] - VLCC freight rates have shown significant strength, with the TD3C route recording a rate of $126,000 per day on November 13, 2025, and an average rate of $104,000 per day for November [6][15] Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping market is recovering, with the BDI index averaging 1997 points, indicating a near five-year high, driven by improved demand for iron ore and coal [6][44] - Supply growth for dry bulk vessels is limited, with Capesize orders at only 9.32%, leading to projected capacity growth rates of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.6% for 2025-2027 [10][49] Container Shipping - The container shipping market in Asia remains tight, with a significant portion of new orders focused on ultra-large container ships, while smaller vessels face aging issues [11][68] - Despite a year-on-year decline in freight rates, the Asian container shipping market is expected to maintain demand above industry growth levels due to regional economic growth [11][68] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy for oil shipping, and Haitong Development and China Merchants Industry for dry bulk shipping, citing favorable supply-demand dynamics [12][68] - For container shipping, it suggests focusing on Jinjiang Shipping and Zhonggu Logistics, while keeping an eye on Hapag-Lloyd International [12][68]

Liquidity - The supply side of funds is expanding, with equity public offerings rebounding to 111 billion yuan, up from 59 billion yuan, representing an increase to the 82nd percentile over the past three years[11] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached a historical high of nearly 700 billion yuan over the past six months, with a weekly net inflow of 353.1 billion yuan[44] - The demand side is slightly contracting, with equity financing dropping to 81 billion yuan from 259 billion yuan, at the 46th percentile over the past three years[32] Trading Congestion - The trading heat in the chemical industry increased by 42 percentage points to 79%, while the insurance sector decreased by 17 percentage points to 16%[62] - Media sector trading heat rose by 13 percentage points to 47%, while central enterprises fell by 14 percentage points to 26%[62] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow reached 205.4 billion yuan, an increase of 633.3 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it in the 93.7th percentile over the past five years[2] - The overall market saw a correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.5% to below 3900 points on November 21[78] - The search heat for A-shares on social media platforms returned to a high not seen since August, indicating increased investor interest[78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [48]. Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 1.25% compared to a 3.77% drop in the CSI 300 index, indicating a relative strength in the sector [9]. - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI applications, particularly with Google's Gemini 3 model and its implications for content understanding and advertising efficiency [32]. - The gaming market remains robust, with Tencent's products dominating the iOS sales charts, reflecting strong consumer engagement [16]. - The film market shows signs of recovery, with total box office revenue reaching 41.178 billion yuan, recovering approximately 75% of the pre-pandemic levels [19]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index decreased by 1.25% last week, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.77%, resulting in a 2.52% outperformance of the media sector [9]. - The gaming market continues to show strong performance, with Tencent's titles consistently ranking at the top of the iOS sales charts [16]. - The film market's total box office revenue reached 41.178 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 75% compared to 2019 [19]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Tencent's HunyuanVideo 1.5 model was released, significantly lowering the cost of AI video production, which could accelerate the adoption of AIGC in short films and advertisements [29]. - Luma AI raised $900 million to build a 2GW computing cluster for multi-modal AI systems, indicating a shift towards infrastructure competition in AI video generation [30]. - Alibaba's Qwen-based app "Qianwen" surpassed 600 million downloads, highlighting the growing importance of AI-driven applications in the media landscape [33].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Production investment growth is a key factor affecting mid-term price equilibrium, with a significant decline observed in manufacturing investment, which has dropped by 15% compared to the peak in May[11] - October CPI rose unexpectedly by 0.2%, influenced by food prices and gold, but this increase is not expected to be sustainable[12] - Essential consumption and service consumption are showing slight recovery, with essential consumption growth at 4.2% in October, up from 3.4%[15] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - Global risk asset volatility is influenced by fluctuating expectations of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Japan[17] - The recent market adjustment may have reached its limit, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping below the 60-day moving average for the first time in six months[18] - Investment strategies should focus on valuation-profit matching, AI technology rebounds, and supply-constrained cyclical industries such as metals and coal[21] Group 3: Fixed Income and Insurance Sector - The bond market is experiencing a low-interest rate environment, with insurance funds showing a decrease in bond allocation to 50.3% as of Q3 2025, while stock and fund allocations have increased[41] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% in the short term, influenced by risk appetite and new fund sales regulations[26] - Insurance companies are likely to continue increasing equity asset allocations to enhance long-term returns, despite the pressure from rising interest rates[42]