公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 裕同科技（002831）重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 收购华研科技 51%股份，多元化布局加速 事项： | 目标价：39.12 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：31.92 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 17,157 | 18,818 | 21,851 | 24,102 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.7% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 10.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,409 | 1,643 | 2,001 | 2,294 | | 同比增速(%) | -2.1% | 16.6% | 21.8% | 14.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is acquiring a 51% stake in Huayan Technology for 449 million yuan, which is expected to accelerate its diversification strategy [2][7]. - Huayan Technology is a provider of precision components with applications in AI glasses, foldable smartphones, and surgical robots, which will enhance the company's growth potential [7]. - The company has established a strong overseas production network, benefiting from lower production costs and higher profit margins in international markets compared to domestic ones [7]. - The report projects steady revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 24.1 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [3][8]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase to 2.29 billion yuan by 2027, with a notable growth rate of 14.7% in that year [3][8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 39.12 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026 [3][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.16 billion yuan, 18.82 billion yuan, 21.85 billion yuan, and 24.10 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 9.7%, 16.1%, and 10.3% [3][8]. - The company's net profit is expected to be 1.41 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.29 billion yuan by 2027, with growth rates of -2.1%, 16.6%, 21.8%, and 14.7% for the respective years [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.53 yuan in 2024 to 2.49 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 52.2% in 2024, decreasing to 41.7% by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [20]. Core Insights - The launch of Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance marks a significant advancement in AI video generation, featuring multi-modal reference capabilities and efficient creative processes, applicable in various fields such as animation and advertising [2][6]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential of AI-generated content (AIGC) and the increasing capital expenditure by ByteDance, projected at 160 billion RMB for 2026, with a significant portion allocated for advanced semiconductor chips [6]. - The report suggests a focus on key companies within the AIGC supply chain, including chip manufacturers, server providers, data centers, and application developers, indicating a broad investment opportunity across the sector [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The computer industry comprises 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 61,676.90 billion RMB and a circulating market value of 55,806.98 billion RMB [3]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Industrial Fulian is projected to have a revenue of 608.47 billion RMB in 2024, with a net profit of 23.22 billion RMB, reflecting a PE ratio of 48.0 for 2024 and 32.3 for 2025 [2]. - Other notable companies include: - Huagong Information with a projected revenue of 90.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.93 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. - Cambrian with a revenue forecast of 11.7 billion RMB and a net profit of -0.45 billion RMB in 2024 [7]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the computer industry shows a decline of 1.3% over the past month, but a growth of 16.7% over the past six months and 17.5% over the past year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Haiguang Information, Cambrian, and others in the AI and semiconductor sectors, indicating a robust investment landscape driven by technological advancements [6].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy shows resilience, but uncertainty factors have increased, with inflation remaining sticky and labor markets cooling down[8] - In 2025, major economies are in a rate-cutting cycle, leading to significant increases in global stock indices and a decline in the US dollar index[8] - China's economic growth is supported by exports, which are expected to remain a key demand factor in 2026[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[15] - New goals include guiding reasonable growth in financial totals and balanced credit allocation to address supply-demand challenges[15] - The central bank plans to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools, including rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, to maintain liquidity and support economic growth[15] Group 3: Structural Policies - The central bank has shifted its focus to expanding domestic demand as a priority in structural monetary policy, moving away from an earlier emphasis on technological innovation[19] - There is potential for new policies related to domestic demand, particularly through re-lending tools aimed at supporting key sectors[21] Group 4: Capital Market Insights - The midstream sector is expected to benefit the most from exports, with data indicating a faster contraction in midstream supply compared to upstream and downstream sectors[2] - Long-term loans to the industrial sector have decreased, while loans to the service sector have marginally increased, reflecting a shift in credit allocation[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 299.88 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.05 to 1.25 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 51.78% to 80.69% [2][8]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow substantially, with total revenue expected to reach 11.63 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 56.9% [4][9]. - The company is focusing on its "intelligent computing + data storage + server remanufacturing + AIoT smart terminal" business directions, which are expected to drive rapid revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has secured over 200 billion yuan in server procurement for 2025, indicating strong demand for its high-performance computing solutions [8][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships with major suppliers in the data storage sector, which are expected to enhance its market position and revenue potential [8][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 7.41 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.63 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 56.9% [4][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 692 million yuan in 2024 to 1.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 70.8% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.00 yuan in 2024 to 3.41 yuan in 2025 [4][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 109 in 2024 to 64 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 299.88 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 1.05 to 1.25 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 51.78% to 80.69% [2][8]. - The anticipated net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecasted to be between 1.01 to 1.21 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 50.45% to 80.24% [2][8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its smart computing and data storage businesses, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.41 billion CNY in 2024 to 11.63 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 59.1% [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 692 million CNY in 2024 to 1.18 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 140.8% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.00 CNY in 2024 to 3.41 CNY in 2025 [4][9]. Business Development - The company plans to invest over 20 billion CNY in server procurement for 2025, indicating a strong demand for high-performance computing infrastructure [8][9]. - The company has established multiple partnerships for enterprise-level storage solutions, which are expected to enhance its market position [8][9]. - The server remanufacturing business is also projected to grow steadily, contributing positively to overall performance [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a volume - shrinking correction today, with valuations rising month - on - month. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, and the median price of convertible bonds decreased slightly. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased, while the proportion of bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range increased [2][3]. - In the A - share market, the decline in the positive - stock industry index accounted for more than half, while in the convertible bond market, 18 industries rose. Different industries had different performances in terms of closing price, conversion premium rate, conversion value, and pure bond premium rate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.37%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 0.18%, and the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.20%. Among market styles, mid - cap value was relatively dominant [2]. - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 142.67 yuan, a 0.32% decrease from yesterday. The closing prices of partial - equity, partial - debt, and balanced convertible bonds changed by +2.17%, - 0.05%, and +0.22% respectively. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased by 0.12 pct, and the proportion of bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range increased by 0.29 pct [3]. Market Capital Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 72.799 billion yuan, a 9.88% decrease month - on - month; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.124745 trillion yuan, a 6.41% decrease month - on - month. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 32.204 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.20 bp to 1.81% [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were real estate (-1.40%), food and beverage (-1.31%), and commerce and retail (-0.87%); the top three rising industries were media (+4.27%), household appliances (+1.11%), and coal (+0.88%). In the convertible bond market, the top three rising industries were communication (+2.29%), automobile (+2.25%), and media (+1.44%); the top three declining industries were textile and apparel (-2.17%), environmental protection (-1.56%), and non - bank finance (-0.90%) [4]. - In terms of different industry categories: the closing price of the large - cycle category decreased by 0.17%, manufacturing increased by 0.99%, technology increased by 0.80%, large - consumption decreased by 0.39%, and large - finance decreased by 0.41%. The conversion premium rate of the large - cycle category increased by 0.86 pct, manufacturing increased by 0.75 pct, technology decreased by 2.3 pct, large - consumption increased by 0.56 pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.22 pct. The conversion value of the large - cycle category decreased by 0.77%, manufacturing increased by 0.59%, technology increased by 1.91%, large - consumption decreased by 0.34%, and large - finance decreased by 0.43%. The pure bond premium rate of the large - cycle category decreased by 0.36 pct, manufacturing increased by 1.6 pct, technology increased by 1.4 pct, large - consumption decreased by 0.54 pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.48 pct [4][5]. Industry Rotation - Media, household appliances, and coal led the rise. The media industry had a daily increase of 4.27% in the positive - stock market and 1.44% in the convertible bond market; household appliances had a daily increase of 1.11% in the positive - stock market and 0.19% in the convertible bond market; coal had a daily increase of 0.88% in the positive - stock market and 0.85% in the convertible bond market [55].

Core Insights - The report analyzes the factors influencing bond fund returns in Q4 2025, highlighting the impact of credit strategies on yields [7] - It identifies a recovery in credit bond allocation sentiment compared to Q3, with a notable preference for mid-term credit varieties [12][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of leveraging strategies and the contribution of credit downgrades to overall portfolio returns [23][27] Group 1: Performance of Bond Funds - The average return rate for bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.55%, a significant improvement from -0.32% in Q3 [12] - Credit bond allocation's contribution to returns increased, with a correlation coefficient of 0.0027 in Q4, up from 0.0024 in Q3 [12] - Mid-term bonds (3-5 years) showed a strong contribution to portfolio returns, with a U-shaped relationship between return rates and the average remaining maturity of heavy holdings [17][20] Group 2: Bond Fund Holdings Overview - By the end of Q4 2025, the total scale of credit bonds held by bond funds reached 5.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 303.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [34] - The proportion of credit bonds in bond fund holdings rose to 63.21%, up from 61.00% in the previous quarter [34] - The average yield of heavy holdings in various bond categories generally declined, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards more liquid varieties [2][3] Group 3: Credit Bond Strategy Analysis - The report notes an increase in the frequency of holdings in government and financial bonds, while credit bond holdings decreased, suggesting a strategy shift towards more liquid assets [2] - The average remaining maturity of heavy credit bond holdings slightly lengthened, indicating a flexible adjustment in duration structure [2] - The report categorizes heavy credit bond holdings by yield ranges, identifying specific opportunities for investment based on implied ratings [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Kehua Data (002335) with a target price of 71.20 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI infrastructure globally, with a focus on product innovation and expanding high-quality customer relationships [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 92.71 billion CNY, 127.03 billion CNY, and 165.45 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 5.62 billion CNY, 8.30 billion CNY, and 12.23 billion CNY [2][7]. - The company has shown strong growth in its renewable energy and data center segments, with significant increases in revenue from these areas [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 7,757 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.7%. This is expected to rebound to 19.5% in 2025, followed by 37.0% in 2026 and 30.2% in 2027 [2][17]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 315 million CNY, with a significant increase to 562 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 830 million CNY in 2026 and 1,223 million CNY in 2027 [2][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.61 CNY in 2024 to 1.09 CNY in 2025, reaching 1.61 CNY in 2026 and 2.37 CNY in 2027 [2][17]. Business Segments - The company's three main business segments—renewable energy, data centers, and smart electric power—are projected to generate revenues of 18.52 billion CNY, 13.98 billion CNY, and 4.39 billion CNY respectively in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The share of revenue from the renewable energy segment is expected to increase from 46.51% in 2024 to 49.62% in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7]. - The overseas business segment has shown a growth trend, with revenue increasing from 310 million CNY in 2020 to 977 million CNY in 2023, despite a slight decline in 2024 [7].

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, among 26 major economies tracked, only 1 has cut rates (Israel) and 1 has raised rates (Australia), while the US, EU, and Japan have kept rates unchanged[2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates approximately 2 times in 2026, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to cut rates further as inflation has reached target levels[3][10] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates about 2 times in 2026, reflecting a complex economic situation characterized by "stagflation"[3][24] Group 2: Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has risen to $2.94 trillion, with a reserve-to-GDP ratio of approximately 9.6%, nearing the desired range of 10%-12%[4][44] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread has stabilized at -1 basis point, indicating no further deterioration in liquidity conditions[5][45] - The liquidity environment remains stable, with US 10-year Treasury bid-ask spreads slightly increasing to around 0.4 basis points, and credit risk premiums remaining low across various markets[6][11]