金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260202-20260206） 短期择时模型多空交织，后市或中性震荡 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍下跌，上证指数单周下跌 1.27%，创业板指单周下跌 3.28%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型部分宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 看多。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型中性。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益 差相似模型看多。 本周行业指数涨跌互现，涨幅前五的行业为：食品饮料、纺织服装、银行、电 力设备及新能源、交通运输，跌幅前五的行业为：有色金属、通信、电子、计 算机、传媒。从资金流向角度来说，除煤炭、纺织服装外所有行业主力资金净 流出，其中电子、有色金属、通信、计算机、传媒主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 94.71%，相较于上周增加了 16 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 85.3 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华夏航空（002928）深度研究报告 强推（维持） 深耕支线蓝海市场，编织航空末梢网络 ——华创交运|航空强国系列研究（三） [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,696 | 7,548 | 8,394 | 9,439 | | 同比增速(%) | 30.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 12.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 268 | 591 | 911 | 1,214 | | 同比增速(%) | 127.8% | 120.6% | 54.2% | 33.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.95 | | 市盈率(倍) | 55 | 25 | 16 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 6 日收盘价 公司研究 航空 2026 年 0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 如何看待近期二永与普信债走势分化？ ——信用周报 20260207 ❖ 本周信用债收益率普遍下行，信用利差多被动走阔。本周权益市场整体偏弱， 央行呵护春节资金面，债市震荡走强。信用债收益率普遍跟随下行，但幅度小 于利率品种，利差被动走阔为主。分品种来看，5y 普信债利差走阔幅度较大， 前期利差大幅压缩后收益率进一步下行动能趋弱；1-2yAA 地产债表现较优， 情绪有所修复，利差大幅收窄。银行二永债前半周表现弱于普信债，后半周债 市走强，二永债情绪随之好转。 ❖ 如何看待近期二永与普信债走势分化？ 1）银行二永债整体需求结构或较普信债更弱。一是，"偿二代"、I9 监管体系 的实施影响了保险配置二永债的意愿。二是，近两年理财委外对二永有一定配 置需求，但 2025 年以来理财多种平滑净值手段已进行整改，理财直投占比有 所回升，同时委外占比收缩且风格趋于保守，随着 2025 年理财估值整改完成， 理财"稳净值"压力增加，对二永债需求或减弱。三是，银行二永债无法通过 SPPI 测试纳入摊余成本债基的投资范围，近期摊余成本债基开放高峰，对普 信债配置需求较强，但二永债需求增量相对有 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Lumentum (LITE), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Lumentum's FY26Q2 results set a record with total revenue reaching $665.5 million, a year-over-year increase of over 65%, marking the second consecutive quarter of record revenue [3][7]. - Non-GAAP operating margin increased significantly by 1730 basis points to 25.2%, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 42.5%, up 1020 basis points year-over-year and 310 basis points quarter-over-quarter [3][7]. - The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.67, exceeding expectations, with cash and short-term investments totaling $1.16 billion [3][7]. Revenue Breakdown - **Component Business**: Revenue was $443.7 million, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% and a year-over-year increase of 68%. The growth was driven by significant demand for laser chips and components, particularly for cloud transceiver customers [8]. - **System Business**: Revenue reached $221.8 million, reflecting a 43% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 60% year-over-year increase, primarily contributed by cloud transceiver business [9]. Business Progress - **Cloud Transceivers**: The 1.6T product line is advancing beyond expectations, with profitability significantly higher than the 800G products. The company is focusing on reducing design cycles and improving yield to enhance profitability [4]. - **Optical Communication Systems (OCS)**: Orders are coming from multiple clients, with applications across four major scenarios, and expected to continue growing into 2027 [4]. - **CPO**: The company secured several hundred million dollars in orders for high-power laser chips, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2027 [4]. - **Fiber Expansion**: Targeting opportunities in data center architecture transformation, with plans to launch large-scale CPO products by the end of 2027 [4]. Earnings Guidance - For FY26Q3, Lumentum expects net revenue between $780 million and $830 million, with a midpoint of $805 million, representing over 85% year-over-year growth [10]. - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be between 30% and 31%, with diluted earnings per share expected to be between $2.15 and $2.35 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Infineon Technologies, indicating expectations for revenue growth and profitability improvements in the upcoming fiscal periods [4][28]. Core Insights - Infineon reported revenue of €3.662 billion for CY25Q4, a 7% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 7% increase year-over-year, aligning with seasonal trends and guidance expectations [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin improved to 43.0%, reflecting a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 1.9 percentage point increase year-over-year [2][9]. - The company anticipates revenue of approximately €3.8 billion for CY26Q1, with a projected segment profit margin in the mid to high double-digit percentage range [4][27]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Infineon achieved a revenue of €3.662 billion in CY25Q4, with a quarter-over-quarter decline of 7% and a year-over-year growth of 7%, which is close to a 14% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin was reported at 43.0%, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year-over-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [2][9]. - The order backlog reached approximately €21 billion, showing a continuous improvement trend over the past six months [2][9]. Segment Performance 1. **Automotive Segment (ATV)**: Revenue was €1.821 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter but up 4% year-over-year, with a segment profit margin of 22.1% [3][12]. 2. **Green Industrial Power Segment (GIP)**: Revenue was €349 million, down 21% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 8.9% [3][18]. 3. **Power and Sensor Systems Segment (PSS)**: Revenue was €1.171 billion, down 3% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 17.4% [3][22]. 4. **Connected Secure Systems Segment (CSS)**: Revenue was €321 million, down 13% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 7.2% [3][24]. Demand Situation - The semiconductor market is experiencing a gradual and uneven recovery, with automotive and industrial sectors showing limited demand recovery, while AI-related applications continue to drive significant growth [3][9]. Company Guidance - For CY26Q1, Infineon expects revenue of approximately €3.8 billion, with segment profit margins projected in the range of 15%-19% [4][27]. - For FY2026, the company anticipates revenue growth compared to FY2025, with adjusted gross margins expected to be slightly above 40% [4][28]. - The company plans to invest €500 million in AI-related capital expenditures to support rapid growth in AI power business [4][30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating, indicating a recommendation for potential growth in the upcoming months [60]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of NT$ 12.594 billion for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.0% [2][12]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 27.5%, showing a slight decline of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][12]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in demand as inventory adjustments conclude, with expected wafer shipment growth of 1%-3% in Q1 2026 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of NT$ 12.594 billion, driven by a 5% increase in ASP (average selling price) in USD and a 4% depreciation of the NT dollar against the USD, despite a 7% decrease in wafer shipments due to seasonal demand and inventory adjustments [2][12]. - The company shipped 626,000 8-inch wafers in Q4 2025, a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 13% year-on-year [2][12]. Demand Outlook - The company expects a gradual recovery in demand for panel driver ICs as applications related to TVs and e-paper enter a stocking and inventory replenishment phase [4][23]. - Demand for power management products in sectors such as servers, automotive, industrial control, and computers remains robust [4][23]. Capacity and Capital Expenditure Plans - For 2026, the company plans to phase out and upgrade some of its older capacity, with an expected total capacity of approximately 3.306 million 8-inch wafers, a decrease of about 4% year-on-year [5][24]. - The capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to remain in the range of NT$ 60-70 billion, with 85% allocated for the construction and equipment investment of the 12-inch wafer fab in Singapore [5][26]. Q1 2026 Performance Guidance - The company anticipates wafer shipments to increase by approximately 1%-3% in Q1 2026, with an expected decrease in ASP of about 3%-5% due to product mix changes and price adjustments [5][28]. - The gross margin is expected to maintain a range of 28%-30% supported by improved capacity utilization and product structure [5][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for AMD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - AMD achieved record performance in FY25Q4 with total revenue reaching $10.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%. The gross margin significantly improved to 57%, up 290 basis points year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share were $1.53, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year. Annual revenue also grew by 34% to $34.6 billion, with multiple key metrics hitting historical highs [2][7]. - The data center business generated $5.4 billion in revenue, marking a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the penetration of the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the explosive growth of the Instinct GPU business. Eight out of the top ten AI companies utilize Instinct for production workloads [3][8]. - The client and gaming segment combined revenue was $3.9 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase but a 3% quarter-over-quarter decline. The client business alone reached $3.1 billion, a historical high, with over 40% year-over-year growth in commercial laptop and desktop Ryzen CPU sales [9]. - The embedded business reported $950 million in revenue, a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a record $17 billion in design orders accumulated in 2025 [10]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center Business**: Revenue of $5.4 billion, up 39% year-over-year and 24% quarter-over-quarter, with significant contributions from the fifth-generation EPYC processors and MI350 series GPUs [3][8]. - **Client and Gaming Business**: Combined revenue of $3.9 billion, with the client segment at $3.1 billion and gaming at $843 million, reflecting strong demand for Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs [9]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue of $950 million, with a notable increase in design orders and strong performance in various markets [10]. Business Progress - AMD is advancing its product development with the successful mass production of the next-generation data center product MI355, and the upcoming MI400 series is on track for release in H2 2026 [4]. - The software ecosystem is expanding, with the ROCm ecosystem supporting AMD GPUs and new models in healthcare [4]. Performance Guidance - AMD provided non-GAAP guidance for FY26Q1, projecting revenue of approximately $9.8 billion (with a fluctuation of $300 million), a gross margin of about 55% (up 130 basis points year-over-year), and operating expenses of around $3.05 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for AMD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next six months [46]. Core Insights - AMD achieved record performance in FY25Q4 with total revenue reaching $10.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%. The gross margin significantly improved to 57%, up 290 basis points year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share were $1.53, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year [2][7]. - The data center business generated $5.4 billion in revenue, marking a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the penetration of the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the explosive growth of the Instinct GPU business [3][8]. - The client and gaming segment combined revenue was $3.9 billion, up 37% year-over-year but down 3% quarter-over-quarter, with the client business reaching a record high of $3.1 billion [3][9]. - The embedded business reported revenue of $950 million, a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a total of $17 billion in design wins for 2025 [3][10]. - AMD provided guidance for FY26Q1, projecting revenue of approximately $9.8 billion (with a fluctuation of $300 million), a gross margin of about 55%, and operating expenses of around $3.05 billion [4][11]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center Business**: Revenue reached $5.4 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, with significant contributions from the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the Instinct GPU business [3][8]. - **Client and Gaming Business**: Combined revenue was $3.9 billion, with the client segment at $3.1 billion (up 34% year-over-year) and gaming revenue at $843 million (up 50% year-over-year) [3][9]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue was $950 million, with a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, supported by strong demand in various markets [3][10]. Business Developments - AMD's new generation data center product MI355 has successfully entered mass production, contributing to the improvement in gross margin. The next-generation MI400 series and Helios platform are in development, with MI450 expected to launch in H2 2026 [4]. - The ROCm ecosystem continues to expand, supporting AMD GPUs and integrating into various applications, including healthcare [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company's main business is expected to return to a growth phase in the second half of 2025, with significant growth potential in AI-related business driven by its parent company, ASE Group [1][6]. - The company has a comprehensive layout in the AI sector, including optical communication, ASIC server motherboard design, and high-performance server power supply solutions [6]. - The AI glasses market is anticipated to be a major growth driver for the company's SiP (System in Package) business, benefiting from the increasing demand for smart glasses [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 59,122 million yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 with a growth of 31% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated to be 1,853 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 0.78 yuan in 2025, and further to 1.16 yuan in 2026 [2][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 41.76 yuan, compared to the current price of 33.85 yuan [2][6]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the global electronic design and manufacturing sector, particularly in the SiP module field, and is well-placed to benefit from industry growth trends [6][7]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 808.71 billion yuan, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 45.5% [3][7]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit to 2,776 million yuan by 2026, and 3,433 million yuan by 2027, indicating strong growth potential [2][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 is 36 times, reflecting a premium valuation based on the growth prospects of new business segments [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Infineon Technologies, indicating a potential for growth in the upcoming quarters, particularly driven by AI-related applications and strategic investments [4][30]. Core Insights - Infineon reported a revenue of €3.662 billion for CY25Q4, reflecting a 7% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 7% increase year-over-year, aligning with seasonal trends and reaching the upper limit of guidance [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin improved to 43.0%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous quarter and 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, indicating operational efficiency [2][9]. - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to approximately €21 billion, showing a continuous improvement trend over the past six months [2][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Infineon achieved a revenue of €3.662 billion in CY25Q4, with a quarter-over-quarter decline of 7% and a year-over-year growth of 7%, which is close to 14% when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin was reported at 43.0%, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year-over-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [2][9]. - The segment result was €655 million, with a segment margin of 17.9%, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [2][10]. Departmental Performance 1. **Automotive Segment (ATV)**: Revenue of €1.821 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter but up 4% year-over-year, with a segment margin of 22.1% [3][12]. 2. **Green Industrial Power Segment (GIP)**: Revenue of €349 million, down 21% quarter-over-quarter, with a segment margin of 8.9% [3][18]. 3. **Power and Sensor Systems Segment (PSS)**: Revenue of €1.171 billion, down 3% quarter-over-quarter, with a segment margin of 17.4% [3][22]. 4. **Connected Secure Systems Segment (CSS)**: Revenue of €321 million, down 13% quarter-over-quarter, with a segment margin of 7.2% [3][24]. Performance Guidance - For CY26Q1, Infineon expects revenue of approximately €3.8 billion, with a projected segment margin in the mid to high double-digit percentage range (15%-19%) [4][27]. - For FY2026, the company anticipates revenue growth compared to FY2025, with an adjusted gross margin expected to be slightly above 40% [4][28]. - The company plans to invest €500 million in AI-related capital expenditures to support the rapid growth of AI power business, with total capital expenditures expected to be around €2.7 billion for FY26 [4][30].