策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual-driven business model of the insurance industry, focusing on both assets and liabilities, with a long-term outlook on liability cost optimization driving valuation recovery [8][9] - The insurance sector is currently at a cyclical turning point, with improving operational quality and a focus on cost reduction strategies, particularly in life insurance [9][10] Industry Overview - The insurance sector's total market capitalization is approximately 32,040.19 billion, with a circulating market value of 22,048.26 billion [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in the insurance index, with a 13.8% rise over the past 12 months, although it has underperformed relative to the broader market in the last six months [5] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies such as China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An are projected to have varying EPS growth rates, with China Life expected to see EPS of 6.34 in 2025 and 4.10 in 2026, while Ping An is forecasted to reach 8.02 in 2025 and 8.83 in 2026 [3] - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies, including China Life and China Pacific, based on their projected performance and valuation metrics [3] Investment Themes - The report highlights the importance of the "cost reduction trifecta" in life insurance, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, and dynamic adjustment of preset interest rates [8][9] - In property insurance, the "reporting and operation integration" is expected to optimize costs and enhance profitability, particularly in non-auto insurance segments [9][10] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term performance is closely tied to equity market trends, with expectations of continued growth in 2025, but potential pressure on performance in 2026 due to investment factors [9][10] - Long-term, the report anticipates that improvements in life insurance costs will drive valuation recovery, with a projected NBV growth rate of over 15% for listed insurance companies in 2026 [9][10] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates is expected to alleviate liability costs and enhance the attractiveness of dividend insurance products [24][38] - Recent regulatory guidance aims to stabilize dividend levels in insurance products, preventing excessive competition and ensuring sustainable growth [38][39]

证 券 研 究 报 告 电子行业 2026 年度投资策略 人工智能引领科技革命，算力需求爆发催化 推荐（维持） 产业升级 行业研究 电子 2025 年 12 月 2 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：岳阳 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 118,965.25 | 10.23 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 96,101.01 | 10.30 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -11.3% | 36.1% | 35.2% | | 相对表现 | -6.7% | 21.6% | 20.1% | -8% 15% 38% 61% 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-28~2025-11-28 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《半导体存储行业深度研究报告：企业级需求高 增，驱动新 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 新产业（300832）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 海外业务高速增长，装机结构持续优化 目标价：78 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 25 年三季报。25Q1-3，营业收入 34.28 亿元（+0.39%），归母净利润 12.05 亿元（-12.92%），扣非净利润 11.36 亿元（-14.68%）。25Q3，营业收入 12.43 亿元（+3.28%），归母净利润 4.34 亿元（-9.72%），扣非净利润 4.10 亿元 （-11.58%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,535 | 4,787 | 5,543 | 6,515 | | 同比增速(%) | 15.4% | 5.6% | 15.8% | 17.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,828 | 1,786 | 2,079 | 2,483 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.6% | -2.3% | 16.4% | ...

❑ 主线二：出海链：龙头韧性强，行业格局的新一轮赛跑。 风险提示：地产数据超预期下滑;终端消费复苏不及预期:中美贸易摩擦加剧。 轻工制造 2025 年 12 月 02 日 行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业 2026 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 探寻出海与内需的"新"底色 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 162 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 10,452.90 | 0.88 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 8,843.52 | 0.92 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.4% | 17.2% | 14.3% | | 相对表现 | 4.7% | -1.9% | -2.5% | -17% -4% 8% 20% 24/12 25/02 25/0 ...

行业研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 48 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比增加 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,550.76 | 1.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 12,027.70 | 1.26 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.0% | 13.6% | -5.3% | | 相对表现 | -1.6% | -5.6% | -22.2% | -24% -9% 6% 20% 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 25/09 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20251201 市场概况：1 日转债缩量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.10%、上证综指环比上涨 0.65%、深证成 指环比上涨 1.25%、创业板指环比上涨 1.31%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.81%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.72%。 市场风格：大盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 1.42%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.66%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.21%、中盘价值环比上涨 1.28%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.16%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.79%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 536.24 亿元，环比 减少 9.67%；万得全 A 总成交额为 18894.49 亿元，环比增长 18.26%；沪深两 市主力净流出 3.43 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.46bp 至 1.84%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 132.54 元，环比昨日上升 0.08%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 186.69 元，环比 下降 0.96%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 119.3 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆&ETF资金分化趋势逆转 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年12月1日 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 1）资金供给端扩张：偏股型公募新发小幅下降、杠杆&ETF资金分化趋势逆转：杠杆资金净流入回暖，股票型ETF 净申购大幅流出； 2）资金需求端小幅收缩：股权融资&产业资本净减持规模均小幅扩张、南向资金出现收缩，近六个月累计净流入超 7000亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：传媒+23pct至73%、轻工+18pct至60%、军工+9pct至40%；下行行业主要为： 医疗服务-12pct至43%、有色-12pct至32%、券商-10pct至2%。 • 投资者温度计： 1）上周 ...

宏观研究 3、产业：1）11 月 28 日，中国人民银行召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调 机制会议。2）11 月 28 日，工信部召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈 会，提出依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。3）11 月 29 日，新 华社报道称，国家航天局已设立商业航天司， 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 "十五五"扩内需，如何部署？ ——政策周观察第 57 期 ❖ 11 月 28 日，国家发改委郑栅洁主任在人民日报发表署名文章《坚持扩大内需 这个战略基点》，阐述"十五五"时期扩内需思路，要点如下： 1、大力提振居民消费。1）现状："我国居民消费率与发达国家相比仍有 10-30 个百分点的差距，特别是服务消费占比偏低"。2）短期：强调增加和优化供 给，"立足当前，重点是优化环境、创新场景、减少限制……扩大优质消费品 和服务供给。取消消费领域不合理或'一刀切'限制措施……针对带薪休假'有 假难休'的问题，完善落实机制"。3）中长期：强调居民增收。"着眼长远， 重点是切实增强居民消费能力，着力提高居民消费率。稳就业促增收是消费的 前提和基础，要采取有力措施，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重、提 ...

Economic Trends - The WEI index decreased to 4.62% as of November 23, down from 5.42% the previous week, indicating a downward trend in economic activity[3] - Passenger car retail sales showed a slight improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 7% as of November 23, compared to a previous decline of 9%[2] - Port container throughput rebounded significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 5.4% as of November 23, and a year-on-year increase of 10% over the past four weeks[2] Real Estate and Construction - Residential sales continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 35% in transaction area across 67 cities as of November 29[3] - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 0.88% as of November 23, indicating low volatility[14] - Cement dispatch rates remained low, at 33.4% in the third week of November, unchanged from the previous week and down from 36.5% year-on-year[18] Commodity Prices - Precious metals and agricultural product prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 3.4% to $4223.9 per ounce and LME copper increasing by 2.7% to $10,985 per ton[2] - Domestic agricultural prices generally rose, with vegetable prices up 1.9% and egg prices up 1.2%, while pork prices fell by 0.4%[49] Trade and Exports - New export orders index for China's manufacturing sector rose to 47.6% in November, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[25] - The number of outbound container ships from China to the U.S. showed a year-on-year decline of 7.4% as of November 29, an improvement from a decline of 16.9% in October[25] Interest Rates and Debt - As of November 28, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.4017%, 1.6183%, and 1.8412%, respectively, with slight increases from the previous week[71] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 504 billion yuan in the week ending December 1, with 390 billion yuan in special bonds[54]