Haitong Securities·2024-09-12 00:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the coal business is expected to compensate for price declines through volume increases, and the profitability of the coal chemical sector is improving [6][8] - The company aims for a coal production target of 300 million tons per year in the medium to long term, with coal prices anticipated to fluctuate within a mid-high range [6] - The report projects net profits for the company to be 15.7 billion, 16.2 billion, and 16.9 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57, 1.62, and 1.68 yuan [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 72.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.1% and 31.6%, respectively [5] - The coal production and sales volume for the first half of 2024 reached 69.08 million and 63.76 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and 9% [6] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in the first half of 2024 was 668 yuan per ton, down 22.1% year-on-year [6] Cost and Profitability - The unit cost of self-produced coal remained stable at 371 yuan per ton in the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of 44.4%, down 12.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The report indicates a significant decrease in coal chemical costs in the second quarter of 2024, leading to improved profitability [8] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 0.23 yuan per share, totaling 2.31 billion yuan, which accounts for 30.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in coal production, with projected revenues of 150 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing slightly to 143.88 billion yuan in 2024 [11] - The report provides a valuation range for the company at 17.25 to 18.82 yuan based on a PE ratio of 11 to 12 times for 2024 [6]