美联储系列九：美联储降息周期即将开启，商品影响几何？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut in September, with a dove-to-hawk ratio of 6:1 among the voting members[6] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to support a strong labor market and indicated that the timing for policy adjustments is approaching[6] - The July meeting minutes suggested that a majority of participants believe a policy easing may be appropriate if data remains consistent with expectations[6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down but is not in recession, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 2.8%[8] - Manufacturing is cooling, as indicated by a decline in the August manufacturing PMI, with production and order components continuing to fall[8] - Employment gaps are narrowing, yet consumer spending remains resilient, supported by government transfer payments[8] Group 3: Historical Context of Rate Cuts - Historical data shows that inflation cooling is a necessary precondition for rate cuts, with CPI generally declining before rate reductions[25] - During past rate cut cycles, the unemployment rate typically rises, although there are exceptions where it decreased, indicating successful economic soft landings[28] - The report highlights that asset prices have been trading on a "recession" theme since July, despite resilient economic facts[25]