水电蓄能系列（二）：电量回落蓄能提升——水电预期差

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that after a significant increase in electricity generation during the main flood season, there is now a downward trend in hydropower generation, leading to a divergence in market expectations [1] - The report emphasizes that the decrease in electricity generation should not be linearly extrapolated, as it is primarily linked to the completion of water storage and the operational logic of hydropower generation [1] - The report suggests that the current high water levels will enhance short-term electricity generation capacity and provide assurance for power generation during dry seasons [1] - The valuation of hydropower is expected to improve due to low volatility, stable dividends, and long-term operational capabilities [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Trends in Hydropower Generation - The report notes that the apparent decrease in water inflow is associated with rising water levels, which have improved significantly compared to previous years [6][12] - In July and August 2024, hydropower generation from major companies like Changjiang Electric and Yalongjiang saw substantial year-on-year increases of 38.8% and 47.7%, respectively [15][24] - The report indicates that the current hydropower generation trends are influenced by the completion of water storage and the potential for increased generation efficiency [12][19] Section 2: Water Storage and Generation Expectations - The completion of water storage is expected to alleviate short-term pressure and enhance electricity generation capacity [1][12] - The report highlights that the current high water levels can lead to improved generation efficiency, with specific examples showing a 20% increase in electricity generation per unit of water [1][12] - The report suggests that the focus should shift towards the implications of water storage completion on future generation capacity [1][12] Section 3: Dividend Pricing and Future Valuation - The report discusses the dividend pricing model for hydropower, indicating a potential shift towards a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) approach [1] - It notes that the current dividend yield for companies like Changjiang Electric is around 3.3%, which aligns with historical levels [1] - The report anticipates that as financial costs decrease, profit margins will improve, leading to higher dividend payouts and enhanced valuations across the sector [1] Section 4: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Guotou Electric, Changjiang Electric, and Chuan Investment Energy, which are expected to benefit from improved hydropower generation and water storage conditions [1][19] - It highlights that Guotou Electric is expected to maintain stable profits, while Changjiang Electric is projected to see significant performance growth due to increased electricity generation and reduced costs [1][19]