海外观察：2024年8月美国CPI-核心通胀超预期，进一步提升9月小步伐降息概率

Inflation Data - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, below the expected 2.6% and down from the previous 2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%[2] Market Implications - The unexpected strength in core inflation has raised the probability of a 25bps rate cut in September to 87%, up from 66%[3] - The likelihood of a 50bps cut decreased from 34% to 13%[3] Price Trends - Energy prices were a major drag, with gasoline and fuel prices falling by 0.6% and 1.9% respectively month-on-month[2] - Housing prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, contributing over 80% to the CPI's month-on-month growth[3] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods prices have been on a downward trend for five of the last six months, although the rate of decline has slowed[2] - The prices of used cars have seen a narrowing decline, while new car prices remained stable compared to previous values[2] Economic Outlook - The persistence of inflation, particularly in housing and services, suggests uncertainty regarding future inflation trends[3] - Changes in political support, particularly related to the presidential election, may influence inflation expectations and asset prices[3]