公路行业2024年中报综述：通行费收入韧性强，行业或存系统性提估值机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the highway industry, indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index over the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [1][16]. Core Insights - The highway industry shows resilience in toll revenue despite a slight overall decline in performance due to increased free days and adverse weather conditions. The overall industry performance declined by 4.1% year-on-year in H1 2024, with only 4 out of 19 listed companies achieving positive growth [1][7]. - The report highlights the potential for systematic valuation increases in the industry, driven by policy optimizations in toll road management and a focus on dividend-paying assets [1][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in traffic flow and toll revenue in the second half of 2024, as the number of free days for passenger vehicles is expected to decrease compared to the first half [1][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In H1 2024, toll revenue for major highway companies showed mixed results, with 招商公路 achieving 48.27 billion yuan (up 54.6%), while 山东高速 reported a decrease of 9.3% to 45.25 billion yuan. Overall, the toll revenue for 8 major highway companies (excluding 招商公路) declined by 4.6% year-on-year [1][5][8]. - The report notes that adverse weather conditions and increased free days during the Spring Festival contributed to the decline in toll revenue [1][7]. Policy Changes - The new "Infrastructure and Public Utilities Franchise Management Measures" effective from May 1, 2024, may optimize toll road management policies, potentially extending franchise periods for significant investment projects [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy optimization as a catalyst for systematic valuation opportunities in the highway sector [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong shareholder returns and robust governance structures, such as 粤高速 A, 山东高速, and 招商公路, which are positioned for enhanced dividend yields [1][6]. - It also highlights potential growth in companies like 四川成渝 and 赣粤高速, which are expected to benefit from operational reforms and long remaining toll collection periods [1][6].