有色金属脉动跟踪：基本金属回落，稀土逐步反弹

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to have stronger short-term certainty as the interest rate cut approaches in September [7] - Copper shows short-term uncertainty but is viewed positively for the medium to long term [8] - Aluminum is expected to maintain high profitability, with potential differentiation in green aluminum [9] - Lead and zinc are under pressure due to overseas zinc mine restarts, with a focus on smelting production cuts [10] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to adjustments in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [11] - Nickel prices are under pressure as inventory continues to build, nearing cost support [12] - Tungsten prices are rising amid ongoing supply-demand dynamics [13] - Antimony prices are stable domestically while increasing overseas [14] - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to strong steel demand [15] - Rare earth prices are anticipated to continue rising in September [17] - Titanium market remains stable, but demand for titanium metal is weak [18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Updates on Key Views - Precious Metals: Gold shows stronger short-term certainty as interest rate cuts approach [7] - Industrial Metals: - Copper: Short-term uncertainty but positive medium to long-term outlook [8] - Aluminum: High profitability expected to continue, with potential for green aluminum differentiation [9] - Lead and Zinc: Overseas zinc mine restarts may pressure prices; focus on smelting production cuts [10] - Tin: Prices expected to fluctuate weakly due to semiconductor index adjustments [11] - Nickel: Prices under pressure as inventory builds [12] - Strategic Minor Metals: - Tungsten: Prices rising amid supply-demand dynamics [13] - Antimony: Domestic prices stable, overseas prices rising [14] - Molybdenum: Prices expected to remain high due to strong steel demand [15] - Rare Earth: Prices expected to rise in September [17] - Titanium: Market stable, but demand for titanium metal is weak [18] Section 2: Macroeconomic Trends and Industry Dynamics - Global PMI is approaching a turning point, with US GDP remaining relatively strong [19][22] - China's PMI remains under pressure, with fixed asset investment fluctuating at low levels [19][24] - Codelco plans to acquire a 10% stake in the QB copper mine for $520 million [28] - Guangdong region's recycling enterprises face a VAT rate of approximately 10.2% [29] - Chile's copper production increased by about 2% year-on-year in July 2024 [30] - BMI raised its 2024 tin price forecast, expecting a multi-year bull market [31] Section 3: Metal Prices and Sector Performance - Precious Metals: COMEX gold down 0.6% to $2483.70/oz, with a year-on-year increase of 29.61% [35] - Industrial Metals: LME copper down 3.22% to $8954/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 7.81% [39]