Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HK$ 16.64 per share [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for the first half of the fiscal year 2024 reached RMB 12.47 billion, reflecting a slight year-on-year growth of 1.4%. Sales of power batteries decreased by 6.3%, while energy storage product sales increased by 43.2%, contributing to 22.0% of total revenue [3]. - The sales price of power batteries has stabilized since June, with a significant reduction in price decline due to a low base effect. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen to 50%, indicating that supply-demand issues in the market have not worsened [3]. - The company is optimistic about maintaining its shipment targets for the year, with expectations for over 20 GWh in energy storage shipments. The contribution from overseas projects is expected to materialize starting in 2026/27 [3]. - The company has made significant progress in diversifying its customer base, with major clients contributing around 10% to 20% of total sales, reducing dependency on single customers [3]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly to 15.6% in the first half of the fiscal year, driven by economies of scale and increased production efficiency [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 27,005.9 million for 2023, RMB 32,641.6 million for 2024, RMB 45,603.4 million for 2025, and RMB 60,965.9 million for 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 32.5% in 2023 and 20.9% in 2024 [8]. - The gross profit is expected to rise from RMB 3,511.5 million in 2024 to RMB 10,658.1 million in 2026, with gross profit margins projected to improve from 13.0% to 17.5% over the same period [8][12]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase significantly, from RMB 294.4 million in 2023 to RMB 2,191.2 million in 2026, reflecting a strong recovery in profitability [8]. Industry Comparison - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HK$ 20.1 billion, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 47.0x for the current year [5]. - Compared to industry peers, the company maintains a competitive position with a gross margin of 13.0% and a return on equity of 1.1% [5].
中创新航：经营情况预期得到改善