市场热点探析：美联储降息对全球市场的影响

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve is set to initiate its fourth rate-cutting cycle of the century in the second half of the year, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 35% probability of a 50 basis point cut in September [1][15][4] - Historical data shows that global stock markets tend to perform well in the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle, but often decline in the later stages [1][18] - The report suggests that the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession is low, which could positively impact equity market performance in the short term [1][20] Group 2 - The analysis of past rate-cutting cycles reveals that major global indices generally experienced declines throughout the entire cycle, but performed better in the initial months following the cuts [1][18] - Specific statistics from previous cycles indicate that the S&P 500 index fell by 27.4% over the entire rate-cutting cycle, but saw a 2.5% increase in the month following the cut [1][18] - The report emphasizes that external economic shocks during past cycles contributed to poor market performance in the later stages, while the absence of such shocks currently suggests a more favorable outlook [1][19][20]