Hundsun(600570) 国泰君安·2024-09-12 12:11Investment Rating - Downgrade target price to 22.62 RMB, maintain "Overweight" rating [3] - The target price is based on the average PE of comparable companies in 2024 [3] Core Views - Revenue is under temporary pressure, but profitability remains unaffected [3] - Net profit is significantly impacted by fluctuations in the fair value of financial assets held by the company [3] - Gross margin remains stable, and cost control measures are effective [3] - The company's 2024 equity incentive plan anchors long-term value, with a focus on infrastructure value and stable pricing power [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 2.836 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.32% [3] - Q2 2024 revenue was 1.648 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88% [3] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.89 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 93.30% [3] - Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 66.03 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 70.56% [3] - The company's total headcount decreased to 12,700 by the end of the reporting period [3] Business Segments - Wealth technology business revenue declined by double digits in H1 2024, while other business segments remained relatively stable [3] - Gross margin remained stable with only a 0.73 percentage point decline, indicating the company's strong pricing power [3] Equity Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 34 million options to 1,400 employees at an exercise price of 17.04 RMB [3] - The unlocking condition requires a year-on-year net profit growth rate of at least 10% by 2026 [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 0.68 RMB, 0.92 RMB, and 1.09 RMB, respectively [3] - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 7.486 billion RMB, 7.775 billion RMB, and 8.184 billion RMB, respectively [10] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 1.280 billion RMB, 1.735 billion RMB, and 2.067 billion RMB, respectively [10] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios are 24.14, 17.80, and 14.95, respectively [10] - 2024-2026 PB ratios are 3.45, 2.99, and 2.58, respectively [12] - 2024-2026 PS ratios are 4.13, 3.97, and 3.78, respectively [12] Market Data - 52-week stock price range: 15.34-34.18 RMB [6] - Total market capitalization: 30.894 billion RMB [6] - Total shares outstanding: 1.894 billion [6] Historical Performance - 1-month stock price decline: -4% [8] - 3-month stock price decline: -16% [8] - 12-month stock price decline: -52% [8] Industry Context - The company operates in the financial IT sector, with a focus on infrastructure value and stable pricing power [3] - The industry is experiencing a contraction in IT spending by downstream financial clients [3]