金能科技:2024年中报点评:Q2盈利环比减亏,静待二期投产烯烃盈利改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 5.20 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.886 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.43 billion CNY [1]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.499 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.33% [1]. - The report highlights that the production and sales of olefins and carbon black decreased year-on-year, while coal tar and fine chemical products saw an increase [1]. - The report anticipates improved profitability for olefins with the full production of the second phase of the project and expects a positive impact from the automotive industry on carbon black profits [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.584 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -13.2%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to increase to 15.340 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.7% compared to 2023 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.17 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 times [2]. Business Segment Analysis - In Q2 2024, olefins sales volume was 152,200 tons, down 36.44% year-on-year, while the unit revenue increased by 8.26% to 6,693.50 CNY/ton [1]. - Carbon black sales volume was 147,000 tons, down 4.59% year-on-year, with a unit revenue of 7,197.31 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [1]. - The report notes that the coal tar segment saw a sales volume increase of 3.73% year-on-year, with a unit revenue of 2,090.38 CNY/ton, down 8.13% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The second phase of the new facility is expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2024, which will enhance production capacity and efficiency [1]. - The report suggests that the automotive industry will support stable profits in the carbon black sector, with a projected increase in production and sales due to rising automobile sales [1].