宏观及大类资产月报：美联储9月降息在即，中美债市延续涨势

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 165,000, indicating a weakening job market[8] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor participation rate remained steady at 62.7%[8] - August CPI in the U.S. was recorded at 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[8] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total of 1-2 cuts anticipated by the end of the year[9] - The market's sensitivity to recession signals has increased, reflecting concerns over economic stability[2] Chinese Economic Conditions - China's CPI for August was 0.6%, while PPI was -1.8%, both below market expectations, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[15] - Core CPI fell to a historical low of 0.3%, suggesting weak consumer demand for goods and services[15] Asset Performance - In August, domestic bond performance was +0.06%, while equities fell by -3.97% and commodities by -1.51%[22] - Overseas markets outperformed domestic ones, with global bonds rising by +2.37% and equities by +1.58%[22] Risk Factors - Domestic consumption recovery is weaker than expected, and the risk of U.S. recession is increasing, alongside geopolitical tensions[2]