光储平价系列一：全面解构亚非拉光储驱动力

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The economic feasibility of solar storage in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America is being unlocked by adapting to local conditions on both the power supply and user sides. The concept of "solar storage parity" is defined as the overall cost of electricity from solar plus storage being lower than the benchmark coal price, which is more practical than the stricter "full parity" [2][22] - Long-term demand for solar storage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America is expected to rise due to common electricity shortages, while short-term fluctuations will be influenced by external factors such as electricity prices, power supply tightness, and policy changes [2][22] - The stability of the power grid determines the priority of solar storage development, with varying demands across different countries. Countries with strong grids are likely to see growth in both large-scale and distributed solar storage, while those with weaker grids will focus on distributed solar storage [2][22] Summary by Sections Power Supply and User Side Adaptation - The power supply side is seeing initial controllability of solar output through semi-parity, which is expected to drive the growth of centralized solar storage. A configuration of 50% storage capacity relative to daily solar output can address midday consumption issues [2][22] - The user side is experiencing rapid growth in household solar storage demand due to external catalysts that significantly shorten the static payback period. In countries where residential electricity prices exceed 1.0/1.5 CNY/kWh, the payback period is projected to be less than 7/5 years, making it attractive for investment [2][22] Country Selection and Differentiated Development Needs - The electricity price level influences the parity phase and payback period, leading to differentiated development needs across countries. Stronger grids will prioritize large-scale storage, while weaker grids will focus on distributed solar storage [2][22] - Countries like Pakistan, Brazil, South Africa, and Ukraine are showing high growth potential for solar storage driven by electricity prices and power supply tightness, while nations like Mexico, the Philippines, Egypt, Vietnam, and Thailand have significant potential for household solar storage development [2][22] Market Space Outlook - The market potential for solar storage in emerging markets is vast, as it can effectively replace traditional energy sources. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy directions in these regions [2][22] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on in the solar sector include leading battery manufacturers such as JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and JA Solar, as well as material suppliers like Juhua Group and Foster. In the storage sector, companies with technological advantages like Sungrow Power Supply and CATL are highlighted [2][22]