山西汾酒：H1符合预期，强腰部巩固增长韧性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% from the current price [5]. Core Insights - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 22.75 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit of 8.41 billion RMB, up 24.3% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 7.4 billion RMB, with a 17% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 2.15 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its mid-to-high-end product offerings, with significant contributions from the Lao Bai Fen and Panama series, while other liquor categories saw a revenue increase of 27.4% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company plans to strengthen channel management and marketing team effectiveness in H2 2024, with expectations for continued strong performance from mid-tier products [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a current A-share price of 154.15 RMB as of September 12, 2024, and a market capitalization of 188.06 billion RMB [1][2]. Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue and net profit growth were driven by strong performance in mid-to-high-end liquor categories, with a gross margin of 76.69%, up 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of 12.77 billion RMB, 14.90 billion RMB, and 16.80 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 10.45 RMB, 12.22 RMB, and 13.77 RMB [4][6]. Market Position - The company has a significant market presence, with 14.1% of A-shares held by funds and 72.1% by general corporations, indicating strong institutional support [2].