汽车整车研究框架（行业复盘、需求展望、车企估值及研究框架、价格带分析）

Industry Rating - The report gives the automotive industry an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] Core Views - Policy incentives and high-quality supply are key drivers for the growth of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in China [2] - The penetration rate of NEVs in China has been continuously rising from 2019 to 2024, driven by both policy and supply-side factors [2][7] - The automotive sector has significantly outperformed the market in 2020, 2021, and 2023, driven by the rise of domestic brands and the development of electrification and intelligence [2] - China's automotive market still has significant growth potential, as indicated by the relatively low car ownership per thousand people compared to developed countries [2][21] Industry Recap and Demand Outlook - Policy stimulus has been a major driver of car sales, with three rounds of purchase tax reductions in 2009-2010, 2015-2017, and 2022 effectively boosting sales [5] - Post-2020, the market demand has shifted from first-time buyers to replacement and upgrade buyers, altering the market structure [5] - The NEV market has been driven by both policy and supply-side factors, with the dual-credit policy pushing automakers to increase the production of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [7] - The proportion of replacement buyers has significantly increased, with the replacement ratio expected to reach 50% by 2024 [9][12] Vehicle Valuation and Research Framework - Traditional automakers are typically valued using the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio, while new automakers, which are not yet profitable, are valued using the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio [2] - Sales volume is a critical factor in valuing automakers, regardless of the valuation method used [2] Price Band Analysis 10-20k RMB Price Band - In the 10-20k RMB price band, distribution channels, cost-effectiveness, and fuel economy are key considerations for consumers [2] - The 10-20k RMB price band has a large potential customer base in lower-tier cities, making channel reach crucial [2] - Consumers in this price band prioritize practicality and cost-effectiveness, with most unwilling to pay extra for智能化 features [2] - Pure electric vehicles (EVs) have relatively low penetration in this price band due to shorter ranges and less developed charging infrastructure in lower-tier cities [35] 20-30k RMB Price Band - In the 20-30k RMB price band, a balanced product with a standout feature and strong brand identity is key to success [2] - Consumers in this price band, mostly in higher-tier cities, prioritize factors like appearance, space, range, cabin intelligence, and驾驶 comfort [2] - Pure electric and增程 vehicles are preferred in this price band due to better battery range and充电 convenience [2] 30k+ RMB Price Band - In the 30k+ RMB price band, brand, quality, and experience are critical factors for consumers [2] - Traditional premium brands still dominate this price band, but their溢价 is expected to decline as新能源化 increases [2] - Consumers in this price band are more willing to pay for better quality and comfort, with油车 and增程 vehicles preferred over纯电 due to range and charging concerns [2] Key Companies - The report recommends比亚迪, 长城汽车, 零跑汽车, 理想汽车, and 广汽集团 as key companies to watch [3] - Other companies to monitor include 长安汽车, 吉利汽车, 小鸥汽车, 蔚米汽车, and 上汽集团 [3] Market Trends - The proportion of cars priced above 150k RMB has increased from 30% in 2018 to 49% in 2023, indicating a消费升级 trend [16] - The 30k+ RMB price band continues to expand, with理想 and问界 competing in this segment [16] - Domestic brands have seen a significant rise in market share, with自主乘用车占比 increasing from 33% in 2020 to 53% in 2023, and自主新能源车销量占比 rising from 60% to 76% [19] Sales and Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown relative outperformance compared to the沪深300 index over the past 1, 3, and 12 months, with汽车板块 returns of -0.06%, -6.06%, and -9.13% respectively, compared to沪深300 returns of -4.16%, -10.66%, and -14.63% [3]