Deye(SH:605117) Shanxi Securities·2024-09-13 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 4.63, 5.80, and 6.82 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 19.9, 15.9, and 13.5 based on the closing price of 91.90 on September 12, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 3.0% in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 47.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year. However, Q2 showed a revenue increase of 2.0% year-on-year and a significant 52.1% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The inverter business faced challenges with a revenue drop of 26.1% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased demand for storage inverters in the South African market. Nevertheless, the company sold 711,700 inverters in the first half of 2024, marking a 7.8% increase year-on-year [4]. - The sales of energy storage battery packs surged by 74.8% year-on-year, driven by high demand in emerging markets and the integration of products with the company's inverter sales channels [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 115.96 billion yuan in 2024, 151.62 billion yuan in 2025, and 180.87 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 55.0%, 30.8%, and 19.3% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit is forecasted to reach 2.983 billion yuan in 2024, 3.737 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.394 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 66.6%, 25.3%, and 17.6% [5][7]. - Key financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 39.6% in 2024, a net margin of 25.7%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 32.1% [6][7].