黄金周报：市场对降息幅度分歧加大，金价震荡回落

Price Trends - On September 6, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 0.41% to 573.68 CNY/g compared to the previous week[1] - COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.36% to 2526.80 USD/oz[2] - Gold T+D spot price slightly declined by 0.14% to 572.60 CNY/g, while London gold spot price dropped by 0.24% to 2497.09 USD/oz[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. August ISM manufacturing index continued to decline, indicating ongoing economic concerns, with a reading of 47.2, below the expected 47.5[15] - August non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, below the expected 165,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%[17] - The ADP employment report showed an increase of only 99,000 jobs in August, the lowest since January 2021[15] Market Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September have become more divided, with a 55% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 45% chance of a 50 basis point cut[15] - The uncertainty surrounding the extent of the rate cut may lead to increased volatility in gold prices[1] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts involving Israel and Russia, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold[1] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased, reflecting heightened market uncertainty[27] Market Dynamics - The international gold basis rose by 7.90 USD/oz to 22.45 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 2.00 CNY/g to -4.2 CNY/g[5] - The gold-to-silver ratio increased, indicating stronger demand for gold relative to silver due to its safe-haven status[5]