锗行业专题报告：供给受限刚性凸显，高新领域需求扩大

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the steel sub-industry as Neutral and the non-ferrous metals sub-industry as Positive [2] Core Viewpoints - Supply Constraints: Global germanium (Ge) supply is rigid due to environmental policies, resource protection measures, and economic factors, with China being the largest producer [3] - Demand Growth: Germanium demand is increasing in high-tech fields such as fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy, driven by 5G, IoT, and satellite internet development [4] - Price Elasticity: Germanium prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and growing demand, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 22.6 tons by 2026 [4] - Strategic Importance: Germanium is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource globally, with major economies like the US, EU, and Japan listing it as a critical mineral [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Metal Resource – Germanium - Germanium is a rare metal with unique semiconductor properties, widely used in high-tech industries such as fiber optics, infrared optics, and solar energy [10] - It is classified as a strategic resource by major economies, including the US, EU, and Japan, due to its importance in defense and high-tech applications [10][11] - China has included germanium in its strategic key mineral list and imposed export restrictions in 2023 [12] 2. Germanium Resource Distribution and Supply - Global germanium reserves are concentrated in the US (45%) and China (41%), with total reserves estimated at 8,600 tons [3][22] - China dominates global germanium production, accounting for 67.86% of global output in 2021 [28] - China's export restrictions have led to a decline in germanium exports and an increase in export prices for certain products [31] 3. Demand Growth in Fiber Optics, Infrared, and Solar Energy - Fiber Optics: Germanium is used to enhance the refractive index in fiber optics, with demand driven by 5G network expansion and cloud computing [37][38] - Infrared: Military and civilian applications, such as night vision and thermal imaging, are boosting germanium demand in the infrared sector [42][44] - Solar Energy: Germanium is a key material in satellite solar cells, with demand expected to grow due to satellite internet projects like Starlink and China's GW and G60 plans [53][58] 4. Germanium Price Trends and Supply-Demand Forecast - Historical germanium prices have shown significant volatility, influenced by supply constraints, geopolitical events, and demand fluctuations [63] - Future supply is expected to remain tight due to environmental and export restrictions, while demand from fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy will drive price increases [67] - The global germanium supply-demand gap is projected to reach 22.6 tons by 2026, supporting strong price performance [67]