爱旭股份：盈利阶段性承压，ABC放量支撑未来业绩

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term challenges [1] Core Views - The company's performance is negatively impacted by irrational pricing and increased inventory write-downs due to industry supply-demand imbalance [1] - The company's profitability is under pressure in the short term, but future performance is expected to be supported by the mass production of ABC products [1] - The company's PERC battery shipments reached 12.84GW in H1 2024, while TOPCon battery production has achieved scale [3] - The company's overseas sales ratio has significantly increased, reaching 40.3% in Q2 2024, up from 12.7% in 2023 [3] - ABC component sales have grown substantially, with shipments of 1.62GW in H1 2024, a 232% increase YoY [3] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 5.16 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 68.2% YoY decrease [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.74 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 233.3% YoY decline [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2.86 billion yuan, a 68.9% YoY decrease but a 5.4% QoQ increase [2] - Q2 2024 net profit was -1.65 billion yuan [2] Product and Market Development - The company's N-type ABC components have achieved significant market penetration, with orders exceeding 10GW [3] - ABC components command a premium of 30%-40% in overseas residential markets and 15%+ in overseas commercial markets compared to TOPCon components [3] - The company plans to launch N-type ABC full-screen components, which are expected to have 6-10% higher power output than N-type TOPCon components [3] Financial Projections - The company's EPS is projected to be -1.09, 0.58, and 1.07 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratios are expected to be -7.0, 13.1, and 7.1 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Revenue is forecasted to be 12.72 billion yuan in 2024, with a 133.4% YoY increase expected in 2025 [5] - Net profit is projected to recover to 1.06 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.96 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Industry Context - The photovoltaic battery sector faces intensified competition due to overcapacity, leading to declining battery prices and reduced profitability [3] - The company is transitioning its battery production structure, with TOPCon batteries achieving mass production in Q2 2024 [3]