基础化工行业周报：丁二烯价格持续上涨，盐湖股份实控人拟变更

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1][22] Core Viewpoints - The global chemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in long cycles, with significant changes occurring on the supply side. European companies are facing substantial profit declines due to rising costs and aging equipment, leading to accelerated capacity exits. Domestic outdated capacity is at the breakeven point, and stricter environmental inspections and energy consumption standards are expected to clear out this capacity. New domestic capacity is gradually reaching its peak, and future capital expenditures are likely to decline. Demand is improving both externally and internally, indicating that the global chemical cycle has bottomed out. Chinese leading enterprises have established clear cost and efficiency advantages and are continuing to expand capacity, entering a phase of increasing market share and strong performance growth [2][22]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - As of September 12, 2024, the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index stands at 95.71, a decrease of 1.21 from September 5, 2024 [1]. Performance Analysis - The chemical industry has shown relative performance declines of -5.5% over 1 month, -15.8% over 3 months, and -27.3% over 12 months, compared to the CSI 300 index which has declined by -5.3%, -10.4%, and -15.5% respectively [2]. Key Opportunities 1. Low-cost expansion targets include companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Linglong Tire, and others [2]. 2. Industries with improving prosperity include tire equipment, refrigerants, polyester filament, phosphate rock, and others [3]. 3. New materials industries with low domestic production rates are also highlighted, including PI films and electronic chemicals [4]. 4. High-dividend central state-owned enterprises are recommended, such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [4]. 5. Investment opportunities in the real estate supply chain are emphasized, particularly in companies like Wanhua Chemical and Longbai Group [4]. Price Trends - Notable price increases include natural rubber at 15,500 RMB/ton (+5.08%), DMC at 4,400 RMB/ton (+4.76%), and butadiene at 13,600 RMB/ton (+4.62%) as of September 13, 2024 [6][7]. Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical has resumed normal production after maintenance, with MDI prices at 18,300 RMB/ton [8]. - Linglong Tire has returned 50 million RMB to its fundraising account [9]. - China Petroleum announced a cash dividend of 0.22 RMB per share, totaling 40.265 billion RMB [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the chemical market is positive, driven by limited supply and increasing demand, particularly in the butadiene market [7].