宏观双周报：内需仍显不足，外部约束有所放松

Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Indicators - Domestic demand remains relatively insufficient, with CPI increases primarily driven by food prices, while PPI shows a significant decline, indicating weak demand, especially in black metal processing[9] - The acceleration in export growth and a decline in import growth reflect a mixed picture of internal and external demand, suggesting a need for further domestic demand expansion policies[9] - Recent data indicates that the effective demand is still lacking, necessitating an increase in total policy measures[2] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is high, driven by disappointing non-farm employment data and declining inflation, with market expectations for a total of 100bps cuts this year possibly being overly optimistic[2][13] - The core CPI's unexpected rise indicates persistent core inflation, particularly in services and housing, which may influence the Fed's rate cut pace[13] - The upcoming U.S. presidential election could impact fiscal deficits and inflation, with both Democratic and Republican outcomes likely to affect the Fed's monetary policy trajectory[15] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares have continued to adjust with reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 4.86% and the ChiNext Index down 2.87% over the past ten trading days[17] - The recent policy changes, including the reduction of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector, may provide long-term benefits to the capital market[17][24] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development[24][27]