2024年8月宏观数据点评：8月宏观数据稳中偏弱，后期逆周期调节政策有望全面加力

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value grew by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August, a decrease from 2.7% in July, reflecting weak consumer demand[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.4% from January to August, down from 3.6% previously[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment shows a "strong supply, weak demand" characteristic, with both supply and demand sides experiencing a downward trend[2] - The official manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.1 in August, indicating contraction for four consecutive months[2] Policy Implications - The central bank may implement further counter-cyclical adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal measures to stimulate demand[2] - Policies to support the real estate sector, such as lowering existing mortgage rates, are crucial for reversing market expectations[2] Industrial Production Insights - The industrial production growth rate is expected to remain strong compared to investment and consumption, driven by robust export demand and equipment upgrades[3] - Year-to-date, industrial added value has increased by 5.8%, with manufacturing value added growing by 6.1%[3] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 86.0, down for four consecutive months[5] - The impact of early mortgage repayments is significant, with an estimated annualized repayment amount of approximately 4.6 trillion yuan, equivalent to 9.8% of the total retail sales[6] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment growth has been declining since April, with infrastructure investment particularly affected by extreme weather conditions[9] - Manufacturing investment remains high, with a year-to-date growth of 9.1%, supported by policy measures and strong demand for equipment updates[10] Real Estate Sector Challenges - Real estate investment fell by 10.2% year-on-year from January to August, with a slight narrowing of the decline in August compared to July[12] - The lack of strong stimulus measures for the real estate sector suggests continued downward pressure on investment in the near term[12]