电力设备行业深度：消费电池：下游需求复苏，新兴市场有望催生边际机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer battery sector is expected to recover as downstream demand rebounds, with emerging markets likely to create marginal opportunities [1]. - The global demand for consumer lithium batteries is projected to reach 123 GWh in 2024, representing an 8.8% year-on-year growth, and is expected to grow to 165 GWh by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2028 [2]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the small soft-pack lithium battery market, with ATL, Zhuhai Guanyu, and Ganfeng Electronics leading in shipments [1][11]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand and Recovery - The consumer battery market is witnessing a recovery as inventory depletion in consumer electronics is nearly complete, leading to anticipated growth in the sector [1]. - The small soft-pack lithium battery, which is more suitable for consumer electronics, accounted for nearly 50% of the market share in smartphones and laptops [1][11]. - In 2023, global shipments of small soft-pack lithium batteries reached 5.48 billion units, a decline of 2.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in smartphone and laptop shipments [11]. Traditional Consumer Electronics - The smartphone market is expected to grow by 4% in 2024, driven by advancements in GenAI technology [3][20]. - The notebook computer market is projected to see a 2% growth in 2024, supported by the introduction of AI PCs [3][25]. - The tablet market experienced a significant increase of 22.1% in Q2 2024, driven by a product refresh cycle [3]. Emerging Consumer Electronics - The wearable device market is expected to grow by 10.5% in 2024, with AR/VR devices showing particularly high growth rates [3]. - The portable energy storage market is anticipated to grow rapidly due to increased outdoor participation and disaster preparedness awareness [3]. - The electric two-wheeler market saw a shipment of 87 million units in 2022, with a growth rate of 13.6% [3]. Competitive Landscape - ATL leads the global small soft-pack lithium battery market with over 1.3 billion units shipped in 2023, followed by Zhuhai Guanyu and Ganfeng Electronics [1][11]. - The report notes that domestic manufacturers are expected to gain market share as Japanese and Korean companies gradually exit the consumer battery market [1][3]. - Key players to watch include Xinwangda, Zhuhai Guanyu, Haopeng Technology, and Weilan Lithium [3].