2024年8月经济数据点评：“努力实现全年经济社会发展目标”的政策抓手

Economic Overview - In August 2024, industrial production showed signs of weakness, with the industrial added value growing by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July[3]. - Fixed asset investment increased by 2.2% year-on-year in August, a slight recovery of 0.3% from July, but still below seasonal expectations[10]. Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0% in August, although it fell by 0.3% compared to July[10]. - Real estate investment saw a narrowing decline of 10.2% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in commodity housing sales[10]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.1% year-on-year in August, down from 2.7% in July, reflecting a decline in consumer demand[12]. - The performance of optional consumption categories, particularly automobiles, has weakened, while home appliances and consumer electronics showed signs of recovery due to policy support[12]. Policy Implications - The government aims to achieve a 5% economic growth target for the year, focusing on reallocating existing fiscal funds to stimulate consumption and investment[4]. - If subsidies for automobiles and home appliances are effective, retail sales growth could rebound by 3 percentage points in the second half of the year[12]. Risks and Challenges - There are concerns about the internal economic momentum recovering slower than expected, alongside potential escalations in US-China trade tensions[18].