国内观察：2024年8月经济数据：经济数据低于预期，政策预期有望升温

Economic Data Overview - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.1% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in the previous month[2] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.6%[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July[2] Consumer Behavior Insights - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with service retail sales growing by 6.9% year-on-year, compared to a 3.9% increase in goods retail sales[2] - The automotive sector saw a significant decline of 7.3%, likely due to price promotions, while home appliances rebounded with a growth of 3.4%[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted increase of only 0.16%, below the five-year average of 0.45%[2] - Manufacturing investment remained robust at 8.0%, although infrastructure investment dropped to 6.2%[3] Real Estate Market Challenges - Real estate development investment and sales area both experienced year-on-year declines exceeding 10%[3] - In August, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 19.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing downward pressure despite a low base from the previous year[3] Industrial Production Dynamics - The industrial added value growth was impacted by high-energy-consuming products, which continued to show negative growth, while integrated circuits and smartphones saw increases of 17.8% and 8.9%, respectively[3] - Power generation increased by 5.75%, supporting the growth in public utility production[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, continued downturn in the real estate sector, and risks of an economic recession in the United States[3]