海外市场周观察：美股强劲反弹，降息预期现分歧

Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 4.02%, marking the largest weekly gain since November last year[1] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year for August was reported at 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.6%, and the lowest level since February 2021[1] - Core inflation month-on-month exceeded expectations, driven by stronger housing inflation, which reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut next week are both at 50%[1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a dovish stance, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rising to 50%[1] - The overall resilience of the labor market suggests that significant rate cuts may not be urgently necessary[1] Asset Performance - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with NYMEX platinum (+8.13%) and COMEX silver (+7.55%) leading gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index (-2.23%) recorded the largest decline[1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 5.95%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.60%[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties[1]