跟踪、预测以及影响探究：基于移民视角论美国就业市场

Group 1: Labor Market Trends - The U.S. labor market has recently weakened due to both supply and demand factors, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in July 2024, marking a significant increase from the pandemic low[14] - The share of foreign-born workers in total employment has increased from 17% in 2020 to 19.6% in the first eight months of 2024[9] - Monthly non-farm employment growth has declined to an average of 20,000 in 2024, down from over 60,000 in 2021[48] Group 2: Immigration Impact - Net immigration is projected to decrease to around 2 million in 2024, influenced by upcoming U.S. elections and potential policy changes[1] - If Kamala Harris wins the election, average annual immigration may stabilize at 2-3 million, while a Trump victory could reduce it to 700,000-1.6 million[1] - The rapid influx of illegal immigrants has contributed to structural changes in the labor market, particularly in low-skill jobs such as construction and food services[46] Group 3: Economic Implications - Wage growth has slowed, with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) dropping to 4.1% in Q2 2024, down from a peak of 5.1% in Q2 2022[54] - Rental price growth has also decelerated, with the Zillow rental index rising only 3.4% year-over-year in July 2024, significantly lower than the 15.8% peak in 2022[58] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals (V/U) has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a potential easing of labor market tightness[54]